Impact of the People's Republic of China's Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis

24 Pages Posted: 26 Mar 2016

See all articles by Fan Zhai

Fan Zhai

China Investment Corporation

Peter Morgan

ADBI

Date Written: March 25, 2016

Abstract

As an important global and regional economic power, the PRC’s growth slowdown may cause large spillover effects to its neighboring economies. Using a multi-sectoral global computable general equilibrium model, this paper quantitatively investigates the impacts of a growth slowdown in the PRC for emerging Asian economies through trade linkages. The results suggest that a growth slowdown of 1.6 percentage points in the PRC would bring about a growth deceleration of 0.26 percentage points in developing Asia as a whole. However, the impacts vary dramatically by economy within developing Asia, reflecting their difference in economic and trade structure.

Keywords: People’s Republic of China, economic slowdown, spillover effects, emerging economies

JEL Classification: C68, F44, F47, F62

Suggested Citation

Zhai, Fan and Morgan, Peter J., Impact of the People's Republic of China's Growth Slowdown on Emerging Asia: A General Equilibrium Analysis (March 25, 2016). ADBI Working Paper 560, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2754490 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2754490

Fan Zhai (Contact Author)

China Investment Corporation ( email )

New Poly Plaza, No.1 Chaoyangmen
Beidajie, Dongcheng
Beijing, 100010
China

Peter J. Morgan

ADBI ( email )

Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5
Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo, 100-6008
Japan

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
138
Abstract Views
750
rank
250,350
PlumX Metrics