Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?

Posted: 11 Aug 2001

See all articles by Kristin J. Forbes

Kristin J. Forbes

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Abstract

This paper measures whether trade linkages are important determinants of a country's vulnerability to crises that originate elsewhere in the world. It explains that trade can transmit crises internationally via three distinct, and possible counteracting, channels: a competitiveness effect (when changes in relative prices affect a country's ability to compete abroad); an income effect (when a crisis affects incomes and the demand for imports); and a cheap-import effect (when a crisis reduces import prices and acts as a positive supply shock). Next, the paper develops a series of statistics measuring each of these trade linkages for a sample of 58 countries during 16 crises from 1994 through 1999. Of particular interest is the competitiveness statistic, which uses 4-digit industry information to calculate how each crisis affects exports from other countries. Empirical results suggest that countries which compete with exports from a crisis country and which export to the crisis country (i.e. the competitiveness and income effects) had significantly lower stock market returns. Although trade linkages only partially explain stock market returns during recent crises, they are significant and economically important.

JEL Classification: F1, F3

Suggested Citation

Forbes, Kristin J., Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=270441

Kristin J. Forbes (Contact Author)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )

Room E62-416
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-8996 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://web.mit.edu/kjforbes/www

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
786
PlumX Metrics