Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles?

26 Pages Posted: 19 Aug 2015 Last revised: 24 Jul 2019

See all articles by Neville Francis

Neville Francis

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Department of Economics

Michael Owyang

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division

Daniel Soques

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Wilmington

Date Written: 2015

Abstract

The U.S. financial crisis of 2007-08 had detrimental and lasting effects on the economies of other nations, reinforcing the leading role played by the United States in the global economy. The authors assess this role by determining whether U.S. output growth informs business cycle turning points in the economies of other nations. They find that U.S. economic growth influences both the timing and duration of business cycle phases for Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, and, to a lesser extent, Mexico. However, they find no relationship between U.S. output growth and the business cycles of France, Italy, and Japan.

JEL Classification: E32, F44

Suggested Citation

Francis, Neville and Owyang, Michael T. and Soques, Daniel, Does the United States Lead Foreign Business Cycles? (2015). Review, Vol. 97, Issue 2, pp. 133-158, 2015, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2646138

Neville Francis (Contact Author)

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Department of Economics ( email )

Chapel Hill, NC 27599
United States

Michael T. Owyang

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - Research Division ( email )

411 Locust St
Saint Louis, MO 63011
United States

Daniel Soques

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Wilmington ( email )

601 South College Road
Wilmington, NC 28403
United States

HOME PAGE: http://people.uncw.edu/soquesd/index.html

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