Mozambique Energy Outlook, 2015-2030. Data, Scenarios and Policy Implications

56 Pages Posted: 15 Aug 2015

See all articles by Gilberto Mahumane

Gilberto Mahumane

Eduardo Mondlane University (UEM)

Peter Mulder

VU University Amsterdam - Department of Spatial Economics

Date Written: August 14, 2015

Abstract

This paper presents the first comprehensive Energy Outlook for Mozambique, a country that since long is one of the poorest nations of the world but since recently also developing into a leading energy producer. We present projections until 2030, based on a newly developed integrated long-run scenario model, new national and regional energy statistics, demographic and urbanization trends as well as cross-country based GDP elasticities for biomass consumption, sector structure and vehicle ownership. Our analysis shows an emerging ‘energy-dichotomy’ in Mozambique. On the one hand, the energy sector is characterized by a rapid and huge expansion. Until 2030, exploitation of the country’s reserves of coal, natural gas and hydropower is likely to increase primary energy production at least six-fold and probably much more, most of which is destined for export. We show that, as a result, Mozambique is rapidly developing into an important player at international energy markets; it may well become one of the leading global producers of natural gas and coal. On the other hand, our analysis shows that households continue to account for the major part of total energy consumption, with the majority of the population still being deprived from access to modern energy fuels by 2030. Hence, despite the spectacular rise of the extractive industry sector, population growth continues to be a key driver of energy consumption growth in Mozambique. Finally, we discuss the major challenges these findings pose for energy policy in Mozambique.

Keywords: Mozambique, Energy Outlook, Energy Scenarios, Energy Policy

JEL Classification: O13, Q33, Q40, Q43, Q47, Q48

Suggested Citation

Mahumane, Gilberto and Mulder, Peter, Mozambique Energy Outlook, 2015-2030. Data, Scenarios and Policy Implications (August 14, 2015). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2644144 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2644144

Gilberto Mahumane

Eduardo Mondlane University (UEM) ( email )

Maputo
Mozambique

Peter Mulder (Contact Author)

VU University Amsterdam - Department of Spatial Economics ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, 1081 HV
Netherlands
+31205982371 (Phone)

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