A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers: The Case of Poland and the Euro Area

51 Pages Posted: 2 Jun 2015

See all articles by Michal Andrle

Michal Andrle

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Roberto Garcia-Saltos

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Giang Ho

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: October 2014

Abstract

This paper studies economic and financial spillovers from the euro area to Poland in a two-country semi-structural model. The model incorporates various channels of macrofinancial linkages and cross-border spillovers. We parameterize the model through an extensive calibration process, and provide a wide range of model properties and evaluation exercises. Simulation results suggest a prominent role of foreign demand shocks (euro area and global) in driving Poland's output, inflation and interest rate dynamics, particularly in recent years. Our model also has the capability for medium-term conditional forecasting and policy analysis.

Keywords: Spillovers, Poland, Euro Area, Demand, External shocks, Business cycles, Cross country analysis, Econometric models, semi-structural model, inflation, monetary policy, inflation target, real interest rate, national bank, central bank

JEL Classification: E10, E30, E60

Suggested Citation

Andrle, Michal and Garcia-Saltos, Roberto and Ho, Giang, A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers: The Case of Poland and the Euro Area (October 2014). IMF Working Paper No. 14/186, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2613298

Michal Andrle (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Roberto Garcia-Saltos

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Giang Ho

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
27
Abstract Views
359
PlumX Metrics