Growth Econometrics for Agnostics and True Believers

34 Pages Posted: 12 May 2015

See all articles by James Rockey

James Rockey

University of Birmingham - Department of Economics

Jonathan R.W. Temple

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Date Written: May 2015

Abstract

The issue of model uncertainty is central to the empirical study of economic growth. Many recent papers use Bayesian Model Averaging to address model uncertainty, but Ciccone and Jarocinski (2010) have questioned the approach on theoretical and empirical grounds. They argue that a standard 'agnostic' approach is too sensitive to small changes in the dependent variable, such as those associated with different vintages of the Penn World Table (PWT). This paper revisits their theoretical arguments and empirical illustration, drawing on more recent vintages of the PWT, and introducing an approach that limits the degree of agnosticism.

Keywords: Bayesian model averaging, growth econometrics, growth regressions

JEL Classification: C51, O40, O47

Suggested Citation

Rockey, James Charles and Temple, Jonathan R.W., Growth Econometrics for Agnostics and True Believers (May 2015). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP10590, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2605025

James Charles Rockey (Contact Author)

University of Birmingham - Department of Economics ( email )

University House
University of Birmingham
116 Edgbaston Park Rd, Birmingham B15 2TY
United Kingdom

Jonathan R.W. Temple

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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