Il Valore Aggiunto Dei Servizi 1861-1951: La Nuova Serie a Prezzi Correnti E Prime Interpretazioni (The Value-Added of Service Industry 1861-1951: The New Series at Current Prices and First Interpretations)

79 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2015

See all articles by Patrizia Battilani

Patrizia Battilani

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ; University of Bologna - Rimini Center for Economic Analysis

Emanuele Felice

Autonomous University of Barcelona

Vera Negri Zamagni

University of Bologna - School of Economics, Management, and Statistics

Date Written: January 19, 2015

Abstract

Italian Abstract: Il saggio presenta la nuova serie annuale del valore aggiunto dei servizi dal 1861 al 1951, a prezzi correnti. Per ogni settore, dopo aver descritto fonti e metodologia, i risultati vengono confrontati con le precedenti serie Istat (1957). L’attenzione qui prestata al valore della produzione dei singoli comparti ci consente di fare emergere la forte sottovalutazione operata dalle serie precedenti. Dal 1861 al 1911 la nuova stima risulta costantemente superiore: poiché il divario aumenta negli anni del decollo, si può prospettare una rivalutazione del contributo dei servizi all’industrializzazione del Paese. Tra 1911 e 1938, la nuova serie presenta un andamento più ciclico, migliore negli anni Venti, peggiore durante la crisi del 1929, ma che vede poi una ripresa più pronunciata. Infine, le variazioni nell’andamento fra il 1938 e il 1951 sono essenzialmente dovute alla pesante sottovalutazione che dei servizi fece l’Istat per l’anno benchmark 1951.

English Abstract: This paper presents the new yearly series of the value-added of services for Italy, from 1861 to 1951, at current prices. For each sector, after discussing sources and methodology, the results are compared with the early Istat (1957) series. By looking at the production value of specific activities, it is possible to reveal the strong underestimation of the early series. From 1861 to 1911, our new estimate is consistently higher: the gap increases while the Italian economy grows strongly, which may lead to a more favourable evaluation of the contribution of services to the industrialization of the country. Between 1911 and 1938, our series is more cyclical, performing better in the twenties, worse during the 1929 crisis, but then again showing faster recovery in the 1930s. Finally, the changes between 1938 and 1951 are essentially due to the heavy underestimation of services found in the early series for 1951.

Note: Downloadable document is in Italian.

Keywords: Italy, national accounts, services, historical data reconstruction

JEL Classification: C82, N73, N74

Suggested Citation

Battilani, Patrizia and Felice, Emanuele and Zamagni, Vera Negri, Il Valore Aggiunto Dei Servizi 1861-1951: La Nuova Serie a Prezzi Correnti E Prime Interpretazioni (The Value-Added of Service Industry 1861-1951: The New Series at Current Prices and First Interpretations) (January 19, 2015). Bank of Italy Economic History Working Paper No. 33, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2596487 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2596487

Patrizia Battilani

University of Bologna - Department of Economics ( email )

piazza Scaravilli 2
Bologna, 40126
Italy

University of Bologna - Rimini Center for Economic Analysis ( email )

Via Patara, 3
Rimini (RN), RN 47900
Italy

Emanuele Felice

Autonomous University of Barcelona ( email )

Plaça Cívica
Cerdañola del Valles
Bellaterra, Barcelona 08193
Spain

Vera Negri Zamagni (Contact Author)

University of Bologna - School of Economics, Management, and Statistics ( email )

Piazza Scaravilli 1
40126 Bologna, fc 47100
Italy

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