A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)
15 Pages Posted: 23 Feb 2015
Date Written: January 2015
This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months. We also show that this cyclical indicator is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently.
Keywords: International trade, Cyclical indicators, Indicators of economic activity, Data analysis, World trade, leading indicators, factor models., growth rate, variables, trough, business climate, price, gdp, commodities, volatility, future, value, benchmark, exchange, economic statistics, data availability, protectionism, commodity, exchange rate, macroeconomic forecasting, static analysis, goods, expectations, theory, macroeconomics, diffusion indexes, measurement, output, prices
JEL Classification: F17, F47, E37
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation