Poor Trends

25 Pages Posted: 29 Jan 2015

See all articles by Richard Bluhm

Richard Bluhm

Leibniz University Hannover; UNU-MERIT; Maastricht Graduate School of Governance

Denis de Crombrugghe

Maastricht University

Adam Szirmai

Eindhoven University of Technology (TUE) - Faculty of Technology Management

Date Written: February 1, 2014

Abstract

We review the origins of the dollar-a-day poverty line, discuss historical poverty and inequality trends, and forecast poverty rates until 2030 using a new fractional response approach. Three findings stand out. First, global poverty reduction since 1981 has been rapid but regional trends are heterogeneous. Second, the pace of poverty reduction at 1.25 a day will slow down. Our optimistic scenarios suggest a poverty rate of 8-9 in 2030, far short of the World Banks new 3 target. Third, rapid progress can be maintained at 2 a day, with an additional one billion people crossing that line by 2030.

Keywords: poverty, inequality, consumption growth

JEL Classification: I32, O10, O15

Suggested Citation

Bluhm, Richard and Crombrugghe, Denis de and Szirmai, Adam, Poor Trends (February 1, 2014). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2556859 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2556859

Richard Bluhm (Contact Author)

Leibniz University Hannover ( email )

Institute of Macroeconomics
Koenigsworther Platz 1
Hannover, 30167
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://mak.uni-hannover.de

UNU-MERIT ( email )

Keizer Karelplein 19
Maastricht, 6211TC
Netherlands

Maastricht Graduate School of Governance ( email )

Keizer Karelplein 19
PO Box 616
Maastricht, 6200MD
Netherlands

Denis de Crombrugghe

Maastricht University ( email )

Keizer Karelplein 19
PO Box 616
Maastricht, 6200MD
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://www.governance.unimaas.nl

Adam Szirmai

Eindhoven University of Technology (TUE) - Faculty of Technology Management ( email )

P.O. Box 513
5600 MB Eindhoven
Netherlands

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