25 Pages Posted: 29 Jan 2015
Date Written: February 1, 2014
We review the origins of the dollar-a-day poverty line, discuss historical poverty and inequality trends, and forecast poverty rates until 2030 using a new fractional response approach. Three findings stand out. First, global poverty reduction since 1981 has been rapid but regional trends are heterogeneous. Second, the pace of poverty reduction at 1.25 a day will slow down. Our optimistic scenarios suggest a poverty rate of 8-9 in 2030, far short of the World Banks new 3 target. Third, rapid progress can be maintained at 2 a day, with an additional one billion people crossing that line by 2030.
Keywords: poverty, inequality, consumption growth
JEL Classification: I32, O10, O15
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation