Judge Hercules or Judge Bayes? (Newcomb's Paradox and the Prediction Theory of Law)

11 Pages Posted: 12 Jan 2015 Last revised: 13 Jul 2016

See all articles by F. E. Guerra-Pujol

F. E. Guerra-Pujol

University of Central Florida; Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico

Date Written: July 12, 2016

Abstract

This paper explores two possible connections between hard cases in law and Newcomb’s Paradox in philosophy. One is that Newcomb’s Problem is like a “hard case” in law -- i.e. a choice problem with conflicting and equally logical solutions. The other is that the superior being in Newcomb’s Problem and the mythical Judge Hercules in Ronald Dworkin’s theory of law are the same person. In particular, we claim that Judge Hercules, who we would rechristen Judge Bayes, has the near-perfect ability to predict the outcome of hard cases.

Keywords: Hard Cases, Newcomb’s Paradox, Prediction Theory of Law

JEL Classification: B16, K40, K41

Suggested Citation

Guerra-Pujol, F. E., Judge Hercules or Judge Bayes? (Newcomb's Paradox and the Prediction Theory of Law) (July 12, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2548166 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2548166

F. E. Guerra-Pujol (Contact Author)

University of Central Florida ( email )

Orlando, FL 32816
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.priorprobability.com

Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico ( email )

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