A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050

19 Pages Posted: 22 Oct 2014

See all articles by Philip G. Pardey

Philip G. Pardey

University of Minnesota - College of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences - Department of Applied Economics

Jason Beddow

University of Minnesota - St. Paul

Terrance M. Hurley

University of Minnesota - College of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences - Department of Applied Economics

Timothy K. M. Beatty

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Faculty of Agricultural Sciences

Vernon R. Eidman

University of Minnesota - College of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences - Department of Applied Economics

Date Written: October 2014

Abstract

The notion that global agricultural output needs to double by 2050 is oft repeated. Using a new International Agricultural Prospects (iAP) Model, to project global agricultural consumption and production, we find in favour of a future where aggregate agricultural consumption (in tonnes) increases more modestly, by around 69 per cent (1.3 per cent per year) from 2010 to 2050. The principal driver of this result is a deceleration in population growth in the decades ahead. Per capita income growth and changing demographics (generally ageing population) have significant but secondary roles in spurring growth in agricultural consumption, as does our projected growth in the use of agricultural feedstocks to meet the growth we envisage in biofuel demand. Worldwide (but not equally everywhere), crop yield growth has generally slowed over the past decade or so. Notwithstanding a projected continuance of this slowdown, the prospective improvements in crop productivity are still sufficient to reduce per capita cropland use, such that land devoted to crops would need to increase by less than 10 per cent. Even in our upper‐bound (high‐consumption) scenario, we estimate that there remains sufficient productive agricultural land to more than meet the demand without ploughing‐in additional forest‐dominated lands.

Keywords: biofuels, calories, consumption, demographics, income, production

Suggested Citation

Pardey, Philip G. and Beddow, Jason and Hurley, Terrance M. and Beatty, Timothy K. M. and Eidman, Vernon R., A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures: Global Agriculture Through to 2050 (October 2014). Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 58, Issue 4, pp. 571-589, 2014, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2512995 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12072

Philip G. Pardey (Contact Author)

University of Minnesota - College of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences - Department of Applied Economics ( email )

1994 Buford Avenue
St. Paul, MN 55108
United States

Jason Beddow

University of Minnesota - St. Paul

1364 Eckles Avenue
St Paul, MI
United States

Terrance M. Hurley

University of Minnesota - College of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences - Department of Applied Economics ( email )

1994 Buford Avenue
St. Paul, MN 55108
United States
612-625-0216 (Phone)

Timothy K. M. Beatty

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Faculty of Agricultural Sciences ( email )

Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4
Canada
604-822-1203 (Phone)
604-822-2184 (Fax)

Vernon R. Eidman

University of Minnesota - College of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences - Department of Applied Economics ( email )

1994 Buford Avenue
St. Paul, MN 55108
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
1
Abstract Views
387
PlumX Metrics