Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior

22 Pages Posted: 2 Aug 2014

See all articles by Cullen S. Hendrix

Cullen S. Hendrix

University of Denver - Josef Korbel School of International Studies; Peterson Institute for International Economics

Date Written: July 31, 2014

Abstract

Anecdotal evidence suggests high oil prices embolden leaders in oil-rich states to pursue more aggressive foreign policies. This article tests the conjecture in a sample of 153 countries for the time period 1947-2001. It finds strong evidence of a contingent effect of oil prices on interstate disputes, with high oil prices associated with significant increases in dispute behavior among oil-exporting states, while having either a negative or null effect on dispute behavior in nonexporting states.

Keywords: oil, conflict, diplomacy, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, resource curse

JEL Classification: D74, F51, Q41

Suggested Citation

Hendrix, Cullen S., Oil Prices and Interstate Conflict Behavior (July 31, 2014). Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper No. 14-3, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2474642 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2474642

Cullen S. Hendrix (Contact Author)

University of Denver - Josef Korbel School of International Studies ( email )

Denver, CO 80208
United States

Peterson Institute for International Economics ( email )

1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

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