Collateral Imbalances in Intra-European Trade? Accounting for the Difference Between Gross and Value Added Trade Balances

42 Pages Posted: 22 Jul 2014

See all articles by Arne Nagengast

Arne Nagengast

Deutsche Bundesbank - Economics Department

Robert Stehrer

Vienna Institute of International Economic Studies (WIIW)

Date Written: July 1, 2014

Abstract

One of the main stylised facts that has emerged from the recent literature on global value chains is that bilateral trade imbalances in gross terms can differ substantially from those measured in value added terms. However, the factors underlying the extent and sign of the differences between the two measures have so far not been investigated. Here, we propose a novel decomposition of bilateral gross trade balances that accounts for the differences between gross and value added concepts. The bilateral analysis contributes conceptually to the literature on double counting in trade by identifying the trade flow in which value added is actually recorded for the first time in international trade statistics. We apply our decomposition framework to the development of intra-EU27 trade balances from 1995-2011 and show that a growing share of intra-EU bilateral trade balances is due to demand in countries other than the two direct trading partners.

Keywords: trade balances, global value chains, vertical specialisation, value added, input-output tables

JEL Classification: F1, F2, C67, R15

Suggested Citation

Nagengast, Arne and Stehrer, Robert, Collateral Imbalances in Intra-European Trade? Accounting for the Difference Between Gross and Value Added Trade Balances (July 1, 2014). ECB Working Paper No. 1695, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2461175

Arne Nagengast (Contact Author)

Deutsche Bundesbank - Economics Department ( email )

Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14
60431 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

Robert Stehrer

Vienna Institute of International Economic Studies (WIIW) ( email )

A-1010 Vienna
Austria

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