Do Floods Have Permanent Effects? Evidence from the Netherlands

23 Pages Posted: 3 Jun 2014

See all articles by Trond Husby

Trond Husby

VU University Amsterdam - Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM)

Henri L. F. de Groot

VU University Amsterdam - Department of Spatial Economics; Tinbergen Institute

Marjan W. Hofkes

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Martijn Dröes

University of Amsterdam

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 2014

Abstract

This study investigates the short‐ and long‐run impact on population dynamics of the major flood in the Netherlands in 1953. A dynamic difference‐in‐differences analysis reveals that the flood had an immediate negative impact on population growth, but limited long‐term effects. In contrast, the resulting flood protection program (Deltaworks), had a persisting positive effect on population growth. As a result, there has been an increase in population in flood‐prone areas. Our results suggest a moral hazard effect of flood mitigation leading to more people locating in flood‐prone areas, increasing potential disaster costs.

Suggested Citation

Husby, Trond and de Groot, Henri L.F. and Hofkes, Marjan W. and Dröes, Martijn, Do Floods Have Permanent Effects? Evidence from the Netherlands (June 2014). Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 54, Issue 3, pp. 355-377, 2014, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2445198 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jors.12112

Trond Husby (Contact Author)

VU University Amsterdam - Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) ( email )

De Boelelaan 1115
Amsterdam, 1081 HV
Netherlands

Henri L.F. De Groot

VU University Amsterdam - Department of Spatial Economics ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, 1081 HV
Netherlands
+31 20 598 6168 (Phone)
+31 20 598 6004 (Fax)

Tinbergen Institute

Gustav Mahlerplein 17
Amsterdam, 1082 MS
Netherlands

Marjan W. Hofkes

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, 1081 HV
Netherlands

Martijn Dröes

University of Amsterdam ( email )

Roetersstraat 11
Amsterdam, 1018 WB
Netherlands

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