Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics
CentER Discussion Paper Series No. 2014-008
54 Pages Posted: 16 Jan 2014
Date Written: January 15, 2014
This paper develops an econometric model of industry dynamics for concentrated markets that can be estimated very quickly from market-level data on demand shifters and the number of producers. We show that the model has an essentially unique symmetric Markov-perfect equilibrium that can be calculated from the fixed points of low-dimensional contraction mappings. We characterize the model's identification and extend Rust's (1987) nested fixed point estimator to account for the observable implications of mixed strategies on survival. We illustrate the model's application with ten years of County Business Patterns data from Motion Picture Theaters in 573 Micropolitan Statistical Areas.
Keywords: demand uncertainty, dynamic oligopoly, firm entry and exit, Markov-perfect
JEL Classification: L13, C25, C73
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