Incomplete Markets, Borrowing Constraints, and the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium

FRB of Philadelphia Working Paper No. 00-3

Posted: 6 Nov 2000

See all articles by Sylvain Leduc

Sylvain Leduc

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Date Written: 2000

Abstract

A large body of literature documents that returns from currency speculation are hightly volatile and possess a predictable component, which is itself highly volatile and serially correlated. Explaining the returns from currency speculation through the presence of a risk premium has proven difficult, however. In particular, models with complete markets and time-separable preferences generate risk premia that are nearly constant. This paper solves a model consisting of two monetary economies with incomplete markets, in which agents are subject to borrowing constraints. The paper investigates if such a framework is able to account for the volatility and the size of the foreign exchange risk premium. The model succeeds in increasing substantially the volatility of the risk premium to about 40 percent of that in the data. However, this more volatile risk premium does not translate into sufficiently large predictable excess returns. It thus appears unlikely that excess returns from currency speculation can be uniquely explained by a time-varying risk premium in an incomplete-markets economy with borrowing constraints.

JEL Classification: E32, E52, F31, F33, F41

Suggested Citation

Leduc, Sylvain, Incomplete Markets, Borrowing Constraints, and the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium (2000). FRB of Philadelphia Working Paper No. 00-3, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=237300

Sylvain Leduc (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco ( email )

101 Market Street
San Francisco, CA 94105
United States

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