The US Labor Market in 2030: A Scenario Based on Current Trends in Supply and Demand

52 Pages Posted: 28 Dec 2013

See all articles by Rebecca Edwards

Rebecca Edwards

Reserve Bank of Australia

Fabian Lange

Yale University - Department of Economics; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

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Abstract

Three fundamental forces have shaped labor markets over the last 50 years: the secular increase in the returns to education, educational upgrading, and the integration of large numbers of women into the workforce. We modify the Katz and Murphy (1992) framework to predict the structure of the labor market in 2030. Even though the share of educated females in the workforce will grow rapidly, the supply response will not suffice to offset the trend in demand towards skilled, female labor. Wage growth over the next 20 years will continue to favor college educated workers and in particular college educated females.

Keywords: wage growth, trends in labor demand and supply

JEL Classification: J11, J21, J22, J23, J31

Suggested Citation

Edwards, Rebecca and Lange, Fabian, The US Labor Market in 2030: A Scenario Based on Current Trends in Supply and Demand. IZA Discussion Paper No. 7825, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2372534

Rebecca Edwards (Contact Author)

Reserve Bank of Australia ( email )

65, Martin Place
GPO Box 3947
Sydney, NSW 2001
Australia

Fabian Lange

Yale University - Department of Economics ( email )

28 Hillhouse Ave
New Haven, CT 06520-8264
United States

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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