Assessing the Export-Led-Growth Hypothesis: A Panel Threshold Auto-Regressive Model

Abstract

We adopt a Panel Threshold Autoregressive (PTAR) model to investigate the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in six Middle East and North Africa countries from 1976 to 2005. Two regimes are distinguished according to the threshold variable export-import ratio. Then, the non-linear Granger-causality tests under each regime are applied in the system including GDP, exports and imports. The results reveal that there is bi-directional causality between exports and growth under both regimes in the case of Algeria. The ELG hypothesis is supported at least under one regime in the cases of Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia. In the cases of Morocco and Syria, we find no causality between exports and growth under any of the two regimes.

Keywords: Causality, Economic Growth, Export Promotion, Panel Data, Bootstrap, Threshold Model

JEL Classification: C12, C33, F43, F49, O51, O52, O53, O56