The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence for the MENA Countries

27 Pages Posted: 2 Nov 2013

See all articles by Ansgar Hubertus Belke

Ansgar Hubertus Belke

University of Duisburg-Essen - Department of Economics and Business Administration; IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Centre for European Policy Studies

Christian Dreger

European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder); IZA Institute of Labor Economics; Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: October 1, 2013

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of global oil and food price shocks to consumer prices in Middle East-North African (MENA) countries using threshold cointegration methods. Oil and food price shocks increase domestic prices in the long run, whereby the impact of food prices dominates. While global prices are weakly exogenous, consumer prices respond to deviations from the equilibrium relationship. The short run adjustment pattern exhibits asymmetries and is particularly strong after positive shocks. Downward rigidities on wages may play a crucial role in this regard, as the relatively weak reactions of consumer prices after negative shocks are related to labour market institutions and public subsidies. The more rigid the regulations the more pronounced are the asymmetries. Robustness checks show that international price shocks do not affect GDP growth.

Keywords: Oil and food price transmission, asymmetric error correction, MENA region

JEL Classification: C22, E31, Q02

Suggested Citation

Belke, Ansgar Hubertus and Dreger, Christian, The Transmission of Oil and Food Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence for the MENA Countries (October 1, 2013). DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1332, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2348563 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2348563

Ansgar Hubertus Belke

University of Duisburg-Essen - Department of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

Universitätsstr. 9
Essen, 45141
Germany

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Centre for European Policy Studies ( email )

1 Place du Congres, 1000
Brussels, 1000
Belgium

Christian Dreger (Contact Author)

European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder) ( email )

Frankfurt (Oder)
Germany

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) ( email )

Beijing, 100732
China

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