Carry

65 Pages Posted: 17 Aug 2013 Last revised: 7 Sep 2013

See all articles by Ralph S. J. Koijen

Ralph S. J. Koijen

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Tobias J. Moskowitz

Yale University, Yale SOM; AQR Capital; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Lasse Heje Pedersen

AQR Capital Management, LLC; Copenhagen Business School - Department of Finance; New York University (NYU); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Evert B. Vrugt

VU University Amsterdam, PGO-IM

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: August 2013

Abstract

A security's expected return can be decomposed into its "carry" and its expected price appreciation, where carry can be measured in advance without an asset pricing model. We find that carry predicts returns both in the cross section and time series for a variety of different asset classes that include global equities, global bonds, currencies, commodities, US Treasuries, credit, and equity index options. This predictability underlies the strong returns to "carry trades" that go long high-carry and short low-carry securities, applied almost exclusively to currencies, but shown here to be a robust feature of many assets. We decompose carry returns into static and dynamic components and analyze the economic exposures. Despite unconditionally low correlations across asset classes, we find times when carry strategies across all asset classes do poorly, and show that these episodes coincide with global recessions.

Suggested Citation

Koijen, Ralph S. J. and Moskowitz, Tobias J. and Pedersen, Lasse Heje and Vrugt, Evert B., Carry (August 2013). NBER Working Paper No. w19325, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2311574

Ralph S. J. Koijen (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

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Chicago, IL 60637
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HOME PAGE: http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/ralph.koijen/

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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Tobias J. Moskowitz

Yale University, Yale SOM ( email )

New Haven, CT 06520
United States

HOME PAGE: http://som.yale.edu/tobias-j-moskowitz

AQR Capital ( email )

Greenwich, CT
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Lasse Heje Pedersen

AQR Capital Management, LLC ( email )

Greenwich, CT
United States

Copenhagen Business School - Department of Finance ( email )

Solbjerg Plads 3
Frederiksberg, DK-2000
Denmark

New York University (NYU) ( email )

Stern School of Business
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Evert B. Vrugt

VU University Amsterdam, PGO-IM ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, ND North Holland 1081 HV
Netherlands

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