A Note on Revenue Forecasting During the Dukakis Administration

17 Pages Posted: 2 Feb 2001 Last revised: 17 Apr 2021

See all articles by Daniel R. Feenberg

Daniel R. Feenberg

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Harvey S. Rosen

Princeton University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Date Written: July 1988

Abstract

Critics of Governor Michael Dukakis have suggested that this year?s $400 million overestimate of tax revenues in Massachusetts casts doubt on his putative managerial skills. In this paper, we carefully examine the entire Dukakis forecasting record. We find that the 1988 experience was "unusual? in the sense that on average, revenue forecasts produced by his administration have been too low rather than too high. In addition, we find that there is no significant difference between the quality of the Dukakis forecasts and those of his predecessors in Massachusetts. Hence, those who seek to discover anything extraordinarily positive or negative about Dukakis? managerial capabilities should shift their attention to skills other than revenue forecasting.

Suggested Citation

Feenberg, Daniel R. and Rosen, Harvey S., A Note on Revenue Forecasting During the Dukakis Administration (July 1988). NBER Working Paper No. w2667, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=227245

Daniel R. Feenberg (Contact Author)

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Harvey S. Rosen

Princeton University - Department of Economics ( email )

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CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

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