Delphi Forecasting for Shipping Industry and Technology: Performance and Validity
24 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2013
Date Written: March 26, 2013
The aim of this paper is to investigate the performance of the Delphi group consensus forecasting for the shipping industry and related technology. The Delphi method is the most popular technique for technological and long term forecasting. Based on the opinions of experts, Delphi is an aid in decision-making and it has been in existence for over half a century. The present research considers its performance and validity particularly in the area of the shipping industry. Three existing applications in this field are reviewed which have some improvements and drawbacks due to their objectives; the nature of subjects; and to their appropriateness, according to the recent developments of Delphi. These applications highlight how this technique may be adapted to increase validity in the future studies. Finally, there is a statement of a number of lessons learnt from the empirical studies, which may contribute to the successful outcome of a Delphi practice in the shipping industry.
Keywords: technology forecasting, Delphi group decision, shipping industry
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