The Great Trade Collapse

36 Pages Posted: 22 Dec 2012

See all articles by Rudolfs Bems

Rudolfs Bems

International Monetary Fund (IMF); European Central Bank (ECB)

Robert C. Johnson

University of Notre Dame - Department of Economics

Kei-Mu Yi

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 2012

Abstract

We survey recent literature on the causes of the collapse in international trade during the 2008-2009 global recession. We argue that the evidence points to the collapse in aggregate expenditure, concentrated on trade-intensive durable goods, as the main driver of the trade collapse. Inventory adjustment likely amplified the impact of these expenditure changes on trade. In addition, shocks to credit supply constrained export supply further exacerbating the decline in trade. Most evidence suggests that changes in trade policy did not play a large role. We conclude that one benefit of the trade collapse is that it has stimulated research in neglected areas at the intersection of trade and macroeconomics.

Suggested Citation

Bems, Rudolfs and Johnson, Robert C. and Yi, Kei-Mu, The Great Trade Collapse (December 2012). NBER Working Paper No. w18632, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2192805

Rudolfs Bems (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Robert C. Johnson

University of Notre Dame - Department of Economics ( email )

Notre Dame, IN 46556
United States

Kei-Mu Yi

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas ( email )

2200 North Pearl Street
PO Box 655906
Dallas, TX 75265-5906
United States

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