The Environmental Impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation Forecasts

Affuso E. 2017. “The environmental impact of El Nino southern oscillation forecasts” Trop. Agric. (Trinidad), 94, (1): 31-41

12 Pages Posted: 9 Nov 2012 Last revised: 18 Feb 2017

See all articles by Ermanno Affuso

Ermanno Affuso

University of South Alabama - Mitchell College of Business - Department of Economics and Finance

Date Written: January 1, 2017

Abstract

Yearly weather variability has an impact on agricultural supply and farmer welfare. More accurate weather predictions may increase the net returns for farmers but the indirect environmental impact of forecasts has not been examined. A stochastic bioeconomic model, which includes weather information, examines the impact of agricultural activities on water quality in a large agricultural area affected by the El Nino Southern Oscillation phases. This region is part of the Black Warrior-Tombigbee and the Middle Tennessee-Elk Basins in the Southeast of the United States. The results of the study reveal that if farmers were to use accurate weather predictions, their net returns may increase by 1.64% and the nitrogen loss associated with the agricultural activities would increase by 1.67%. The potential private value of climate uncertainty mitigation exceeds its social cost. In the long run, the net benefit of weather forecast could be approximately $949,450 per year.

Keywords: non-point source pollution, ENSO, stochastic programming, bioeconomics

JEL Classification: C6, Q24, Q25, Q53, Q57

Suggested Citation

Affuso, Ermanno, The Environmental Impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation Forecasts (January 1, 2017). Affuso E. 2017. “The environmental impact of El Nino southern oscillation forecasts” Trop. Agric. (Trinidad), 94, (1): 31-41, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2173065 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2173065

Ermanno Affuso (Contact Author)

University of South Alabama - Mitchell College of Business - Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

College of Business and Management Studies
Mobile, AL 36688
United States
(251) 460-7908 (Phone)
(251) 460-6734 (Fax)

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
71
Abstract Views
500
rank
386,753
PlumX Metrics