Demystifying Time-Series Momentum Strategies: Volatility Estimators, Trading Rules and Pairwise Correlations
"Market Momentum: Theory and Practice", Wiley, 2020 (Forthcoming)
49 Pages Posted: 2 Sep 2012 Last revised: 9 Sep 2019
Date Written: September 8, 2019
Motivated by studies of the impact of frictions on asset prices, we examine the effect of key components of time-series momentum strategies on turnover and performance. We show that more efficient volatility estimation and price trend detection can significantly reduce portfolio turnover by more than one third, without causing statistically significant performance degradation. We propose a novel implementation of the strategy that incorporates the pairwise signed correlations by means of a dynamic leverage mechanism. The correlation-adjusted variant outperforms the naive implementation of the strategy and the outperformance is more pronounced in the post-2008 period. Finally, using a transaction costs model for futures-based strategies that separates costs into roll-over and rebalancing costs, we show that our findings remain robust to the inclusion of transaction costs.
Keywords: Time-series Momentum, Trend Following, Trading Rules, Pairwise Correlations, Turnover, Transaction Costs
JEL Classification: E37, G11, G15, F37
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation