Beyond Chance? The Persistence of Performance in Online Poker
PLoS ONE 10(3): e0115479, March 2015
35 Pages Posted: 15 Aug 2012 Last revised: 3 Mar 2015
Date Written: December 1, 2014
A major issue in the widespread controversy about the legality of poker and the appropriate taxation of winnings is whether poker should be considered a game of skill or a game of chance. To inform this debate we present an analysis into the role of skill in the performance of online poker players, using a large database with hundreds of millions of player-hand observations from real money ring games at three different stakes levels. We find that players whose earlier profitability was in the top (bottom) deciles perform better (worse) and are substantially more likely to end up in the top (bottom) performance deciles of the following time period. Regression analyses of performance on historical performance and other skill-related proxies provide further evidence for persistence and predictability. Simulations point out that skill dominates chance when performance is measured over 1,500 or more hands of play.
Keywords: poker, online poker, no limit texas hold’em, online gambling, skill, chance, game of skill, game of chance, performance persistence, predominance test
JEL Classification: C01, D80, K00, K34
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation