Bolsa Família and the Shift in Lula’s Electoral Base, 2002-2006: A Reply to Bohn

Latin American Research Review

44 Pages Posted: 20 Mar 2012 Last revised: 18 May 2013

See all articles by Cesar Zucco

Cesar Zucco

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE)

Timothy J. Power

University of Oxford

Date Written: December 12, 2011

Abstract

In a recent article published in LARR, Simone Bohn analyzed electoral results and survey data from Brazil to contest several theses concerning the reelection of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2006. In particular Bohn asserted that beneficiaries of Bolsa Familia, a conditional cash transfer program that covered 11 million families at the time of the 2006, were already supporters of Lula in 2002, and that the program did not contribute to the change in Lula’s constituency from his election in 2002 to his reelection in 2006.

We show these claims are based on voter recall data collected 9 and 57 months after each election analyzed that grossly overestimate support for Lula, probably due to well known reporting biases. Reanalysis of Bohn’s results with the same data, and analysis of more reliable surveys suggests that Bolsa Familia did play a role in the 2006 elections.

Suggested Citation

Zucco, Cesar and Power, Timothy J., Bolsa Família and the Shift in Lula’s Electoral Base, 2002-2006: A Reply to Bohn (December 12, 2011). Latin American Research Review, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2025680 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2025680

Cesar Zucco (Contact Author)

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) ( email )

Praia de Botafogo 190
Rio de Janeiro, RJ
Brazil

Timothy J. Power

University of Oxford ( email )

Department of Economics
Manor Road
Oxford, OX1 3UQ
United Kingdom

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