Cyclical Fluctuations in the Mediterranean Basin
42 Pages Posted: 19 Aug 2011
Date Written: August 15, 2011
We investigate the similarities of macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin and their convergence. A model with three indicators, covering the West, the East and the MENA portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Convergence and divergence coexist in the region and are reversible. Except for the West, domestic cyclical fluctuations are still due to national and idiosyncratic causes. The outlook for the next few years looks rosier for the MENA and the East blocks than for the West.
Keywords: Bayesian Methods, Business Cycles, Mediterranean Basin, Developing and Developed Countries
JEL Classification: C11, C33, E32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation