The Copenhagen Accord/Cancún Agreements Emission Pledges for 2020: Exploring Economic and Environmental Impacts

Climate Change Economics (CCE), Forthcoming

Posted: 15 Jul 2011

See all articles by Rob Dellink

Rob Dellink

Wageningen UR - Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group; Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)

Gregory Briner

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Environment Directorate (ENV)

Christa Clapp

CICERO

Date Written: February 1, 2011

Abstract

Many countries have pledged targets or actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; these have been listed in the Appendices to the Copenhagen Accord and, at the time of writing, are being transferred to the UNFCCC Cancún Agreements. This analysis examines the costs and effectiveness of these pledges, as well as the potential for fiscal revenue, using a computable general equilibrium model. The results show that while the pledges are an important and welcome start to a global solution, they are not ambitious enough for a pathway to limit average global temperature increase to below 2°C. This paper estimates the costs of action at around '33% of GDP for both Annex I and non-Annex I countries and '35–'36% of global real income. Furthermore, the fiscal revenue potential can exceed 1% of GDP for the Annex I countries if market-based instruments are used. Sensitivity analysis shows that allowing more offsets can reduce the costs of actions substantially, as can direct linking of carbon markets across Annex I countries.

Keywords: Climate change, computable general equilibrium model, Copenhagen Accord; Cancún Agreements, greenhouse gas mitigation

JEL Classification: F53, H23, H87, Q54, Q58

Suggested Citation

Dellink, Rob and Briner, Gregory and Clapp, Christa, The Copenhagen Accord/Cancún Agreements Emission Pledges for 2020: Exploring Economic and Environmental Impacts (February 1, 2011). Climate Change Economics (CCE), Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1856408

Rob Dellink (Contact Author)

Wageningen UR - Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group ( email )

P.O. Box 8130
Wageningen, 6700 EW
Netherlands
+31 (0)317 4 82009 (Phone)
+31 (0)317 4 84933 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.sls.wau.nl/enr/staff/dellink/

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) ( email )

Paris
France

HOME PAGE: http://www.oecd.org/env/cc/econ

Gregory Briner

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) - Environment Directorate (ENV) ( email )

Paris
France

Christa Clapp

CICERO ( email )

P.O. Box 1129 Blindern
Oslo, N-0317
United States

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