Modeling Transition in Central Asia: The Case of Kazakhstan

51 Pages Posted: 17 Dec 2010

See all articles by Gilles Dufrenot

Gilles Dufrenot

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Alain Sand-Zantman

University of Lyon 2

Adelya Ospanova

Aix-Marseille University

Date Written: October 15, 2010

Abstract

This paper presents a small macro-econometric model of Kazakhstan to study the impact of various economic policies. It uses a new approach to test the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when the characteristics of the regressors’ non-stationarity are not known with certainty. The simulations provide insights into the role of a tight monetary policy, higher foreign direct investment, and rises in nominal wages and in crude oil prices. The results obtained are in line with economic observations and give some support to the policies chosen as priority targets by the Kazakh authorities for the forthcoming years.

Keywords: Simulation, Forecasting, Transition, Stabilization, Central Asian

JEL Classification: E17, F47, O53, P39

Suggested Citation

Dufrenot, Gilles and Sand-Zantman, Alain and Ospanova, Adelya, Modeling Transition in Central Asia: The Case of Kazakhstan (October 15, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1726071 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1726071

Gilles Dufrenot (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Alain Sand-Zantman

University of Lyon 2

93 Chemin des Mouilles
Ecully, 69009
France

Adelya Ospanova

Aix-Marseille University

3 Avenue Robert Schuman
13090
France

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