Using Expert Assessments to Forecast the 2010 House Election

15 Pages Posted: 30 Sep 2010

See all articles by Sanford C. Gordon

Sanford C. Gordon

New York University (NYU) - Wilf Family Department of Politics

Date Written: September 28, 2010

Abstract

I propose a methodology for forecasting the 2010 House election using current and historical race-specific expert rankings. Using ratings from the Cook and Rothenberg Political Reports and adjusting to overcome a potential pro-Democratic bias, the method projects that the Democrats are likely to retain control of the House, albeit with a significantly narrower majority than currently enjoyed.

Keywords: Election, House, Forecast

JEL Classification: C53, D72

Suggested Citation

Gordon, Sanford C., Using Expert Assessments to Forecast the 2010 House Election (September 28, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1684643 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1684643

Sanford C. Gordon (Contact Author)

New York University (NYU) - Wilf Family Department of Politics ( email )

19 West 4th Street, 2nd Floor
New York, NY 10012
United States

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