Macromodel Simulations for the Romanian Economy

Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, No. 2, 2010

19 Pages Posted: 4 Jun 2010

See all articles by Emilian Dobrescu

Emilian Dobrescu

National Institute of Economic Research; Romanian Academy - Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling

Abstract

The paper revises the previous author’s estimates of the medium-term evolution of the Romanian economy. It is organized in three chapters. The first examines the most important crisis and post-crisis problems of Romania. The analysis is developed preponderantly from a structural point of view. The second chapter presents three simulated scenarios for the period 2010-2014. One of them (named the Base Scenario BSc) is conceived with macroeconomic parameters close to those envisaged by Government, in correlation with the IMF stand-by Agreement. The other two (the Worsened Scenarios W1Sc and W2Sc) admit less favorable domestic and external business environment. In the final chapter, the results of simulations are compared to each other and also to the officially accepted forecasting documents. Some former similar predictions (anticipating more optimistic indicators) are discussed from the modeling perspective.

Keywords: Macromodel, Input-Output Analysis, Simulation, Scenario, Crisis

JEL Classification: C53, C67, E17

Suggested Citation

Dobrescu, Emilian, Macromodel Simulations for the Romanian Economy. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, No. 2, 2010, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1620521

Emilian Dobrescu (Contact Author)

National Institute of Economic Research ( email )

13 Calea 13 Septembrie
Bucharest, 050711
Romania
0040212222850 (Phone)
0040212222850 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ince.ro/

Romanian Academy - Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling ( email )

125, Calea Victoriei, Sector 1
Bucharest, RO - 01007
Romania

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