Revenue Buoyancy and its Fiscal Policy Implications
Posted: 1 Jun 2010
Date Written: May 31, 2010
Tax receipts surged between 2005 and 2007 in many OECD countries, resulting in significant improvements in headline fiscal positions. As a consequence, pressures for tax cuts and for public spending increases have emerged. In the past, responding to such demands has permanently weakened budget positions as revenue windfalls ultimately proved to be temporary. Hence, the opportunity to address structural deficit problems and prepare for future demographic trends has been lost, and the ability to respond to subsequent cyclical downturns has been weakened. This paper provides an analysis of the factors behind recent revenue buoyancy and examines past responses to unexpected revenue gains. It also discusses whether improved information on fiscal positions and future fiscal challenges, combined with relevant fiscal rules, might help in avoiding a repetition of past errors in fiscal policy.
Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Windfall Tax Revenues, Fiscal Rules
JEL Classification: H2, H3, H6, H62
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation