Modelling Preferential Sugar Imports of the EU: A Spatial Price Equilibrium Analysis

Posted: 4 Jun 2010

See all articles by Stephan Nolte

Stephan Nolte

Ghent University

Harald Grethe

University of Hohenheim - Development Theory and Agricultural Policy

Jeroen Buysse

Ghent University

Bart Van der Straeten

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Dakerlia Claeys

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Ludwig Lauwers

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Guido van Huylenbroeck

Ghent University

Abstract

A spatial price equilibrium model with a large coverage of countries, policies and regional trade arrangements is applied to simulate preferential sugar imports of the European Union (EU) in 2015/16 under different assumptions with respect to the expansion of the sugar sectors of various least developed countries in order to benefit from unlimited EU market access. These are analysed under three different policy settings: a continuation of current policies, except for export refunds which are phased out by 2013, a continuation of current policies including export refunds and finally a World Trade Organisation agreement. Preferential imports are estimated to clearly exceed current estimates by the European Commission. In all scenarios, however, they are not found to threaten the reference price of the new Common Market Organisation.

Keywords: sugar, Common Agricultural Policy, World Trade Organisation, partial equilibrium model, bilateral trade, spatial price equilibrium model, mixed complementarity problem

JEL Classification: F11, F13, Q11, Q17, Q18

Suggested Citation

Nolte, Stephan and Grethe, Harald and Buysse, Jeroen and Van der Straeten, Bart and Claeys, Dakerlia and Lauwers, Ludwig and van Huylenbroeck, Guido, Modelling Preferential Sugar Imports of the EU: A Spatial Price Equilibrium Analysis. European Review of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 165-186, 2010, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1617076 or http://dx.doi.org/jbq011

Stephan Nolte

Ghent University

Coupure Links 653
Gent, 9000
Belgium

Harald Grethe

University of Hohenheim - Development Theory and Agricultural Policy ( email )

United States

Jeroen Buysse

Ghent University

Coupure Links 653
Gent, 9000
Belgium

Bart Van der Straeten

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Dakerlia Claeys

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Ludwig Lauwers

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Guido Van Huylenbroeck (Contact Author)

Ghent University ( email )

Coupure Links 653
Gent, 9000
Belgium

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