Assessing the Risk of Banking Crises – Revisited
18 Pages Posted: 25 Jul 2012
Date Written: March 2, 2009
Historically, unusually strong increases in credit and asset prices have tended to precede banking crises. Could the current crisis have been anticipated by exploiting this relationship? We explore this question by assessing the out-of-sample performance of leading indicators of banking system distress developed in previous work, also extended to incorporate explicitly property prices. We find that they are fairly successful in providing a signal for several banking systems currently in distress, including that of the United States. We also consider the complications that arise in calibrating the indicators as a result of cross-border exposures, so prominent in the current episode.
JEL Classification: E37, E44, F34, G21
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation