Private Investor Participation and Commercialization Rates for Government-Sponsored Research and Development: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Programme?

18 Pages Posted: 27 Apr 2009

See all articles by Albert Link

Albert Link

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Greensboro - Department of Economics

John T. Scott

Dartmouth College - Department of Economics

Abstract

An objective of the US Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) programme is the private sector commercialization of funded R&D projects. However, our estimate of the actual or expected probability of commercialization of such R&D is fairly low; our analysis of Department of Defense (DoD) Phase II awards suggests that the estimated probability of commercialization is only 0.47. We investigate econometrically whether outside private investors have useful information about proposed SBIR projects' prospects for commercialization. Our findings suggest that they do, thereby providing support for the possibility that a prediction market could improve the performance of the SBIR programme.

Suggested Citation

Link, Albert N. and Scott, John T., Private Investor Participation and Commercialization Rates for Government-Sponsored Research and Development: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Programme?. Economica, Vol. 76, Issue 302, pp. 264-281, April 2009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1375984 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00740.x

Albert N. Link (Contact Author)

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Greensboro - Department of Economics ( email )

Greensboro, NC 27402-6165
United States
336-334-5146 (Phone)
336-334-4089 (Fax)

John T. Scott

Dartmouth College - Department of Economics ( email )

Hanover, NH 03755
United States

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