Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)

67 Pages Posted: 29 Mar 2009

See all articles by Douglas Laxton

Douglas Laxton

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department

David Rose

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Alasdair M. Scott

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: March 2009

Abstract

This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model.

Keywords: Inflation, Forecasting models, Data analysis, Databases, Monetary policy, Central banks, Human capital

Suggested Citation

Laxton, Douglas and Rose, David and Scott, Alasdair M., Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT) (March 2009). IMF Working Paper No. 09/65, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1369468

Douglas Laxton (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

David Rose

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Alasdair M. Scott

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
105
Abstract Views
1,206
rank
308,728
PlumX Metrics