Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon

33 Pages Posted: 18 Mar 2009

See all articles by Jose Angelo Divino

Jose Angelo Divino

Catholic University of Brasilia

Michael McAleer

Erasmus University Rotterdam - Erasmus School of Economics, Econometric Institute; Tinbergen Institute; University of Tokyo - Centre for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics

Date Written: March 17, 2009

Abstract

The Amazon rainforest is one of the world's greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world's environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the upper Amazon) and Para (the lower Amazon), which together account for around 73% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and are the only states that are serviced by international airports in Brazil's North region. The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast sustainable international tourism demand for the states of Amazonas, Para, and the aggregate of the two states. By sustainable tourism is meant a distinctive type of tourism that has relatively low environmental and cultural impacts. Economic progress brought about by illegal wood extraction and commercial agriculture has destroyed large areas of the Amazon rainforest. The sustainable tourism industry has the potential to contribute to the economic development of the Amazon region without destroying the rainforest. The paper presents unit root tests for monthly and annual data, estimates alternative time series models and conditional volatility models of the shocks to international tourist arrivals, and provides forecasts for 2006 and 2007.

Keywords: Brazilian Amazon, International Tourism Demand, Time Series Modelling, Conditional Volatility Models, Forecasting

JEL Classification: C22, C53, Q23

Suggested Citation

Divino, Jose Angelo and McAleer, Michael, Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon (March 17, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1361816 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1361816

Jose Angelo Divino

Catholic University of Brasilia ( email )

SGAN 916
Office A-118
Brasilia, 70790160
Brazil
+55(61)34487135 (Phone)

Michael McAleer (Contact Author)

Erasmus University Rotterdam - Erasmus School of Economics, Econometric Institute ( email )

Rotterdam
Netherlands

Tinbergen Institute

Rotterdam
Netherlands

University of Tokyo - Centre for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics

Tokyo
Japan

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