Do Forecasters Inform or Reassure? Evaluation of the German Real-Time Data

KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, KOF Working Paper No. 215

DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 858

29 Pages Posted: 18 Mar 2009 Last revised: 8 Jul 2009

See all articles by Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Konstantin A. Kholodilin

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Boriss Siliverstovs

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics

Date Written: February 2, 2009

Abstract

The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naive forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.

Keywords: Quality of statistical data, real-time data, signal-to-noise ratio, forecasts, revisions

JEL Classification: C53, C89

Suggested Citation

Kholodilin, Konstantin A. and Siliverstovs, Boriss, Do Forecasters Inform or Reassure? Evaluation of the German Real-Time Data (February 2, 2009). KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, KOF Working Paper No. 215, DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 858, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1361638 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1361638

Konstantin A. Kholodilin (Contact Author)

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstra├če 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Boriss Siliverstovs

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics ( email )

Mohrenstra├če 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.diw.de/programme/jsp/MA.jsp?language=en&uid=bsiliverstovs

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