Exchange Rate Pass-Through in China

China & World Economy, Vol. 17, Issue 1, pp. 33-46, January-February 2009

14 Pages Posted: 4 Feb 2009

See all articles by Xiaojing Su

Xiaojing Su

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Chang Shu

Hong Kong Monetary Authority

Abstract

During the second half of 2007 and early part of 2008 when there were intense inflationary pressures in China, RMB appreciation was advocated as a means of helping to curb inflation. The effectiveness of appreciation in controlling inflation depends on the impact of exchange rate movements on import and domestic prices. Our analysis finds fairly large and speedy exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import prices: 50 and 60 percent for the short run and long run, respectively. However, the degree of ERPT decreases along the price chain from upstream to downstream prices. ERPT for consumer prices, the most downstream prices, is much milder and has substantial lags. A 10-percent rise in the nominal effective exchange rate will dampen consumer prices by 1.1 percent within a year, with very little pass-through in the first half year, and by 2.0 percent over the long run. These findings, particularly the ERPT to consumer prices, suggest that RMB appreciation can help to reduce inflationary pressures over the longer term. However, it is unlikely to provide rapid relief to the current round of high inflation because of the long lags in ERPT. The RMB needs to strengthen in effective terms to exert the desired dampening impact on prices.

Suggested Citation

Su, Xiaojing and Shu, Chang, Exchange Rate Pass-Through in China. China & World Economy, Vol. 17, Issue 1, pp. 33-46, January-February 2009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1335596 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2009.01129.x

Xiaojing Su

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Chang Shu

Hong Kong Monetary Authority ( email )

Hong Kong
China

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