Are All Legal Probabilities Created Equal?

84 N.Y.U. L. REV. 980 (2009).

Bar Ilan Univ. Pub Law Working Paper No. 11-09

31 Pages Posted: 29 Sep 2008 Last revised: 15 Apr 2015

See all articles by Yuval Feldman

Yuval Feldman

Bar-Ilan University - Faculty of Law

Doron Teichman

Hebrew University of Jerusalem - Faculty of Law

Date Written: September 28, 2008

Abstract

Imagine you are offered to play a game at the casino for a cost of one dollar. According to the rules of the game you must first throw a die and then flip a coin. If you guessed both events correctly, you win ten dollars. Like a good rational player you turn to calculate the odds of winning the game, and multiply the probability of the die landing on your guess (1/6) by the probability of guessing the coin toss correctly (1/2). You then reach the conclusion that there is a one in twelve chance to win the game. Turning to cost benefit analysis you realize that the expected benefit from the game (1/12*\$10) is smaller than its cost (\$1), and therefore decline the offer to play.

Keywords: uncertainty, ambiguity, epxressive law, social norms

JEL Classification: K00

Suggested Citation

Feldman, Yuval and Teichman, Doron, Are All Legal Probabilities Created Equal? (September 28, 2008). 84 N.Y.U. L. REV. 980 (2009). , Bar Ilan Univ. Pub Law Working Paper No. 11-09, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1274854