100 Years of Commercial Real Estate Prices in Manhattan

27 Pages Posted: 20 Mar 2008

See all articles by William C. Wheaton

William C. Wheaton

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics

Mark S. Baranski

Northeastern University School of Architecture; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Center for Real Estate

Cesarina A. Templeton

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 10, 2007

Abstract

This paper is able to put together a data base of 86 repeat sales transactions for office properties in lower and mid town Manhattan spanning the years from 1899 through 1999. Using this very limited data base, decade-interval changes in real property prices are estimated - with varying degrees of precision. Our conclusions are two. First, adjusting for inflation, commercial office property values are 30% lower in 1999 than they were in 1899. Secondly, within any decade values often rise and fall by 20-50% in real terms. With these results, the long term historic return to New York commercial property must be mostly be comprised of yield with capital gains limited to general inflation. Other historical studies consistent with this conclusion are reviewed.

JEL Classification: R51, N92

Suggested Citation

Wheaton, William C. and Baranski, Mark S. and Templeton, Cesarina A., 100 Years of Commercial Real Estate Prices in Manhattan (December 10, 2007). MIT Department of Economics Working Paper No. 08-02, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1107535 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1107535

William C. Wheaton (Contact Author)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics ( email )

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E52-252B
Cambridge, MA 02142
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617-253-1723 (Phone)
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Mark S. Baranski

Northeastern University School of Architecture ( email )

Boston, MA 02115
United States

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Center for Real Estate ( email )

United States

Cesarina A. Templeton

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

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