Andreas Graefe

Macromedia University of Applied Sciences

Sandstrasse 9

Munich, Bavaria 80337

Germany

http://www.andreas-graefe.org

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

31

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3,042

SSRN CITATIONS
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Top 13,517

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16

CROSSREF CITATIONS

72

Scholarly Papers (31)

1.

Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections

International Journal of Forecasting, 30(1), 43-54, Revised and extended version of a paper presented at the American Political Science Association (APSA) 2011 Annual Meeting
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 01 Aug 2011 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2014
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 497 (70,234)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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election forecasting, combining, prediction markets, polls, econometric models, expert judgment

2.

Who Should Be Nominated to Run in the 2012 Presidential Election? Long-Term Forecasts Based on Candidates'’ Biographies

APSA 2011 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 01 Aug 2011 Last Revised: 28 Dec 2011
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 423 (85,196)

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elections, forecast, Obama, biography, index method

3.

Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 30 Jun 2008
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 262 (144,065)
Citation 15

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4.

Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections

Forthcoming, Public Opinion Quarterly
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 10 Oct 2012 Last Revised: 13 Jan 2014
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 226 (166,397)

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combining forecasts, Iowa Electronic Markets, election forecasting, forecast accuracy, econometric models, FiveThirtyEight

5.
Downloads 91 (201,077)

Forecasting

Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 18 Aug 2015
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 91 (344,900)

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forecasting, prediction, projection, prognosis, principles

6.

Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 15 Aug 2015
J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of South Australia - UniSA Business and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 168 (217,534)
Citation 2

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analytics, bias, big data, causality, checklists, combining, elections, index method, judgmental bootstrapping, structured analogies, uncertainty

7.

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 06 Aug 2008 Last Revised: 26 Mar 2012
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 160 (226,634)
Citation 5

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index method, unit weighting, experience table, presidential election, accuracy

8.

Candidates' Personality and the Outcome of U.S. Presidential Elections

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 06 Apr 2013
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 117 (289,361)

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election forecasting, Big Five, forecast accuracy, presidential elections, personality perceptions

Issue and Leader Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

APSA 2012 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 17 Jul 2012 Last Revised: 30 Apr 2013
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 98 (328,771)

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Political economy models, forecasting, model accuracy, voter perceptions, issue ownership

Issue and Leader Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

Electoral Studies (Forthcoming)
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 02 May 2013
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 17 (672,441)

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Political economy models, forecasting, model accuracy, voter perceptions, issue ownership

10.

Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for Forecasting Social Science Problems

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 18 May 2013 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2014
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU), Technische Universität München (TUM) - Department of Economics and Technische Universität München (TUM) - Department of Economics
Downloads 109 (303,959)
Citation 3

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combining forecasts, equal weights, election forecasting

11.

Forecasting Principles

M. Lovric, International Encyclopedia on Statistical Science (2010)
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 18 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green, Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 107 (307,944)

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forecasting, principles

12.

Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

Political Science & Politics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 08 Apr 2013 Last Revised: 15 Jan 2014
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 92 (339,784)

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combining forecasts, forecast accuracy, Iowa Electronic Markets, FiveThirtyEight, econometric models, election forecasting

13.

Improving Forecasts Using Equally Weighted Predictors

Journal of Business Research, 68(8), 1792-1799
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 17 Aug 2013 Last Revised: 19 Oct 2017
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 88 (349,456)

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equal weights, index method, econometric models, presidential election forecasting, Moral Algebra

14.

Improving Causal Models for Election Forecasting: Further Evidence on the Golden Rule of Forecasting

APSA 2014 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 01 Sep 2014
Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 76 (380,969)

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Econometrics, election forecasting, equalizing, equal weights, index method, political economy models, regression

15.

German Election Forecasting: Comparing and Combining Methods for 2013

Forthcoming, German Politics (subject to changes)
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 09 Jan 2015 Last Revised: 13 Feb 2015
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 73 (389,648)

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Election forecasting, combining forecasts, PollyVote, accuracy

16.

Predicting Elections from Biographical Information About Candidates: A Test of the Index Method

Journal of Business Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 09 Aug 2010
J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 72 (392,664)
Citation 1

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econometric model, election forecasts, forecast accuracy, index model, political forecasting political marketing, unit-weighting

17.

The 2016 Pollyvote Popular Vote Forecast: A Preliminary Analysis

Forthcoming in PS: Political Science and Politics
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 14 Dec 2016
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 68 (404,934)

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PollyVote, 2016 Presidential Election, Forecast

18.

Predictive Validity of Evidence-Based Persuasion Principles: An Application of the Index Method

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 15 Sep 2015
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Hawaii at Manoa and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 66 (411,425)
Citation 1

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advertising, combining forecasts, copy testing, expertise, intentions, judgmental forecasting

19.

Golden Rule of Forecasting Rearticulated: Forecast Unto Others as You Would Have Them Forecast Unto You

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 15 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 65 (414,674)

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cost benefit analysis, index method, legal damage claims, precautionary principle, principal components, take-the-best

20.

Persuasion Principles Index: Ready for Pretesting Advertisements

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 15 Sep 2015
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Hawaii at Manoa and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 38 (521,913)

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advertising effectiveness, combining forecasts, creativity, index method, profitability, variable weighting

21.

Predicting Elections from the Most Important Issue: A Test of the Take-the-Best Heuristic

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 35 (536,882)

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econometric model, forecasting, elections

22.

Do Econometric Models Provide More Accurate Forecasts When They are More Conservative? A Test of Political Economy Models for Forecasting Elections

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 02 Nov 2017
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 32 (552,717)

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combining forecasts, damping, equalizing, elections, golden rule of forecasting, index method, shrinkage

23.

Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote

FORESIGHT, No. 12, Winter 2009
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 09 Aug 2010
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of West Florida and University of Central Oklahoma
Downloads 24 (601,174)

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24.

Conditions Under Which Index Models are Useful: Reply to Bio-Index Commentaries

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 19 (635,414)
Citation 1

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bio-index, forecasting, index methods, index models

25.

Accuracy Gains from Conservative Forecasting: Tests Using Variations of 19 Econometric Models to Predict 154 Elections in 10 Countries

PLoS ONE 14 (1): e0209850. 2019
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 25 Jan 2019
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 8 (717,580)

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26.

Embrace the differences: Revisiting the PollyVote method of combining forecasts for U.S. presidential elections (2004 to 2020)

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 08 Jul 2021
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 6 (741,141)

Abstract:

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forecasting, combining, polls, betting markets, citizen forecasts, models

27.

Poll Illiteracy: How the Public Misunderstands Polls

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 06 Jul 2021 Last Revised: 08 Jul 2021
Andreas Graefe
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 5 (741,141)

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poll uncertainty, total survey error, sampling error, poll coverage, election forecasts

28.

Combining Forecasts for U.S. Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

Posted: 09 Aug 2010
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of West Florida, University of Central Oklahoma and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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29.

Comparing Face-to-Face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Posted: 03 Mar 2010
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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forecast accuracy, group decision-making, method comparison, satisfaction, combining

30.

Long-Term Forecasting with Prediction Markets - A Field Experiment on Applicability and Expert Confidence

Journal of Prediction Markets, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 71-91, 2008
Posted: 24 Sep 2008
Andreas Graefe and Christof Weinhardt
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

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31.

Towards Pervasive Computing in Health Care - A Literature Review

BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Vol. 8, No. 26
Posted: 23 Sep 2008 Last Revised: 26 Sep 2008
Carsten Orwat, Andreas Graefe and Timm Faulwasser
affiliation not provided to SSRN, Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg

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