F. E. Guerra-Pujol

University of Central Florida

Lecturer

Orlando, FL 32816

United States

http://www.priorprobability.com

Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

57

DOWNLOADS
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35,867

SSRN CITATIONS
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SSRN RANKINGS

Top 24,708

in Total Papers Citations

12

CROSSREF CITATIONS

27

Scholarly Papers (57)

1.

Gödel’s Loophole

Capital University Law Review, vol. 41 (2013), pp. 637-673
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 23 Feb 2012 Last Revised: 18 Dec 2013
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 7,034 (1,121)
Citation 1

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Gödel, Gödelian design defects, constitutional statements, self-amendment, entrenchment, anti-entrenchment clauses

2.

Buy or Bite?

Economics of the Undead, edited by Glen Whitman & James Dow (2014), pp. 123-129
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 29 Sep 2013 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 4,813 (2,158)

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Vampires, Blood, Black Markets, Legal Failure, Violence

3.

Life, Love, and Law: Confessions of a Cuban-American Law Professor

Revista del Colegio de Abogados y Abogadas de P.R., Forthcoming
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 02 Dec 2009 Last Revised: 21 Jul 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 4,315 (2,614)

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Bayesian Probability, Carlitos del Valle, Coase Theorem, Failure, Game Theory, Kurt Gödel, Law, Legal Theory, Orlando I. Martinez-Garcia, Pontifical Catholic University of Puerto Rico, Prisoner’s Dilemma, Scholarship, Sydjia Robinson, Teaching, Thomas Schelling, University of Central Florida

4.

Of Coase and Copyrights: The Law and Economics of Literary Fan Art

NYU Journal of Intellectual Property & Entertainment Law, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 15 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 17 Sep 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 4,296 (2,632)

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copyright, fan art, fair use, Ronald Coase, reciprocal harms

5.

The Turing Test and the Legal Process

Information & Communications Technology Law, vol. 21, no. 2 (June 2012), pp. 113-126
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 01 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 2,423 (6,967)

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Turing Test, Turing litigation game, probabilistic verdicts

6.

The Law of Self-Ownership

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 03 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 24 Jun 2021
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 905 (31,983)

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Epstein, Locke, Nozick, Property Rights, Left Libertarianism, Self-Ownership, Takings

7.

A Bayesian Model of the Litigation Game

European Journal of Legal Studies, vol. 4, no. 2 (Autumn/Winter 2011), pp. 220-240
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 22 Jul 2011 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 703 (45,088)
Citation 4

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Bayes’ theorem, litigation game, random and non-random adjudication, risk-averse and risk-loving moving parties

8.

Trolley Problems

Drake Law Review Discourse, vol. 63 (2014), pp. 101-119
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 08 Sep 2014 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 638 (51,162)

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Auction, Coase Theorem, Free Riding, Thought Experiment, Second-Order Thought Experiment, Trolley Problem, Veil of Ignorance

9.

Chance and Litigation

Boston University Public Interest Law Journal, Vol. 21, No. 1 (Fall 2011), pp. 45-59
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 30 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 10 Sep 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 636 (51,364)
Citation 3

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chance, randomness, coin toss, litigation game, random litigation hypothesis, relative frequency

10.

Visualizing Probabilistic Proof

Washington University Jurisprudence Review, vol. 7, no. 1, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 30 May 2013 Last Revised: 23 Oct 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 564 (59,951)
Citation 5

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Bayes’ Rule, Blue Bus Case, Probabilistic Proof

11.

Clones and the Coase Theorem

Journal of Law & Social Deviance, Vol. 2, pp. 43-91, 2011
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 25 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 31 Jan 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol and Orlando I. Martínez-García
University of Central Florida and Abogados de America Law Offices, LLC
Downloads 513 (67,312)
Citation 1

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clones, Coase theorem, time scarcity, Blade Runner

12.

The Poker-Litigation Game

Resolved: Journal for Alternative Dispute Resolution, vol. 5, no. 1 (2015), pp. 144-164.
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 26 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 483 (72,570)
Citation 2

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poker, poker-litigation game, best response, Nash equilibrium, incomplete information, low and high bets, mixed strategy, probabilistic strategy, strategic game, symmetry

13.

Does the Prisoner's Dilemma Refute the Coase Theorem?

John Marshall Law Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 02 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 07 Sep 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol and Orlando I. Martínez-García
University of Central Florida and Abogados de America Law Offices, LLC
Downloads 432 (83,194)
Citation 2

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Coase Theorem, Prisoner’s Dilemma, Bargaining, Threats and Promises, Uncertainty, Exponential Discounting, Elasticity

14.

Modelling the Coase Theorem

European Journal of Law and Economics, vol. 5, no. 2 (Autumn/Winter 2012/13), pp.139-157
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 15 Aug 2012 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 406 (89,188)
Citation 2

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Coase Theorem, Coasian games, farmer-rancher model, stray cattle, railway sparks, probabilistic payoffs, transaction costs

15.

Love or Liberty? A Short History of Adam Smith in Love

Econ Journal Watch, Vol. 18, No. 1 (March 2021), pp. 127-155.
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 04 Feb 2021 Last Revised: 01 Apr 2021
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 378 (97,128)

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Abbé Colbert, James Currie, Janet Douglas, Lady Frances, David Hume, Henry Mackenzie, Madame Nicol, Madame Riccoboni, Dugald Stewart

16.

The Most Senile Justice?

Supreme Court Micro-Symposium, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 06 Jul 2007 Last Revised: 02 Aug 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 348 (106,270)

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judicial decreptitude, U.S. Supreme Court

17.

Breaking Bad Promises

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 14 May 2016 Last Revised: 25 Nov 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 343 (108,076)

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paradox, promises, promissory obligation

18.

Probabilistic Interpretation, Part II: The Case of the Speluncean Explorers

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 06 Jan 2017
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 342 (108,436)

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Bayesian Probability, Degrees of Belief, Cardinal Voting, Range Voting, Lon Fuller

19.

The Best and Worst of Contracts Decisions: An Anthology

45 Fla. St. U. L. Rev. 889-1022 (2018)., California Western School of Law Research Paper No. 19-2, Southwestern Law School Research Paper No. 2019/04, Marquette Law School Legal Studies Paper No. 19-08
Number of pages: 134 Posted: 13 Feb 2019 Last Revised: 09 Aug 2019
Michigan State University College of Law, Gonzaga University School of Law, Arizona State University (ASU) - Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law, Ohio State University - Moritz College of Law, Marquette University - Law School, University of Central Florida, University of Florida Levin College of Law, Southwestern Law School, University of the Pacific - McGeorge School of Law, Barry University School of Law, Touro College - Jacob D. Fuchsberg Law Center, South Texas College of Law Houston, University of Florida Levin College of Law, South Texas College of Law Houston, University of California, Berkeley - School of Law, University of Arizona, James E. Rogers College of Law, California Western School of Law, William & Mary Law School, South Texas College of Law Houston and Brigham Young University - J. Reuben Clark Law School
Downloads 335 (111,403)

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Contracts, Contract Law

20.

Why Don't Juries Try 'Range Voting'?

Criminal Law Bulletin, vol. 51, no. 3, 2015
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 04 Dec 2013 Last Revised: 21 May 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 327 (113,944)
Citation 2

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jury accuracy, juries, range voting, range verdicts, probabilistic verdicts, holdouts, strategic voting, ignorance, incomplete information, diversity prediction theorem

21.

A Tale of Two Joint Ventures: Jiangsu, China and Havana, Cuba: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Public-Private Contracts in the Water Sector

Journal of Applied Economy, Symposium Issue on 'Critical Regulation,' vol. 3 (2009), pp. 39-56
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 25 Jun 2009 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 312 (119,827)
Citation 1

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best response, internal-externality, public-private partnership

22.

Cowen's Capitalist Manifesto

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 17 Jul 2020 Last Revised: 01 Dec 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 308 (121,464)

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big business, corporations, corruption, CSR, ethics, theory, transaction costs

23.

Teaching Tiger King

Saint Louis University Law Journal (forthcoming)
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 01 Jul 2020 Last Revised: 29 Oct 2020
University of Central Florida, University of Central Florida, University of Central Florida, University of Central Florida and University of Central Florida
Downloads 304 (123,621)

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business law, ethics, legal environment of business, Tiger King

24.

Domestic Violence, Strategic Behavior, and Ideological Rent-Seeking

Number of pages: 20 Posted: 12 Jul 2006 Last Revised: 05 Mar 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 302 (124,080)
Citation 2

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domestic violence, rent-seeking, strategic behavior

25.

Legal Liability for Research Fraud

Statistical Journal of the IAOS, Vol. 33, No. 3 (2017), pp. 755-761
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 07 Oct 2015 Last Revised: 15 Sep 2017
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 283 (132,822)
Citation 3

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Research Fraud, Fabrication of Data, Legal Liability

26.

Coase and the Constitution: A New Approach to Federalism

Richmond Journal of Law and Public Interest, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2011
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 11 Mar 2010 Last Revised: 24 Nov 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 258 (146,058)
Citation 2

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Auctions, Federalism, Property Rights, Ronald Coase, Secondary Markets

27.

Finding Santiago

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 26 Feb 2015 Last Revised: 03 Jun 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 256 (147,194)
Citation 1

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Bayes’ Rule, Hemingway, Santiago, Subjective Probability, The Old Man and the Sea

28.

Gödel's Interbellum

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 01 Sep 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 228 (164,718)

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Anti-Constitutional Moments, Interbellum Europe, Kurt Gödel, Gödel’s Loophole, Constitutional Dictatorship

29.

Bayesian Manipulation of Litigation Outcomes

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 28 Apr 2014 Last Revised: 17 Jun 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 213 (175,679)
Citation 1

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Bayes' rule, common prior assumption, sender, signals, receiver, truth

30.

Probabilistic Interpretation

University of LaVerne Law Review, Vol. 38, No. 1 (2016), pp. 101-121
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 13 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 28 Nov 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 210 (178,073)
Citation 1

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Legal Interpretation, Best-Choice Secretary Problem

31.

The Parable of the Prisoners

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 20 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 22 Jun 2013
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 208 (179,675)
Citation 1

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Prisoner’s Dilemma, Altruist’s Dilemma, game theory, paradigm, Melvin Dresher, Merrill Flood, John Nash, A.W. Tucker

32.

Tom Brady’s Footballs: Modelling the Optimal Level of Rule Evasion

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 29 Jan 2012 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 170 (214,984)

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models of evasion and compliance

33.

Kant on Evidence: A Hypothetical Reply to Kerr

Green Bag 2d. (Summer 2019)
Number of pages: 1 Posted: 20 Jun 2015 Last Revised: 18 Sep 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 162 (223,908)
Citation 1

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Kant, evidence, thought experiments

34.

Puerto Rico as a Critical Locality: Is a Post-Colonial Puerto Rico Possible? A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Impasse over Puerto Rico's Status

St Thomas Law Review, vol. 20, no. 3 (2008), pp. 561-571
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 19 May 2008 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 154 (233,692)

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Truel, Endowment Effect, Path Dependence

35.

The Paradox of Adjudication

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 06 Jun 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 149 (240,052)

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adjudication, costly decision-making, infinite regress, research, deliberation, time constraints, Hand formula

36.

The Futility of the Libertarian Fetish for Freedom: Milton Friedman’s Capitalism and Freedom Revisited

Journal of Law and Social Deviance, vol. 4 (2012), pp. 1-39
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 26 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 148 (241,433)

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coercion, Milton Friedman, capitalism and freedom

37.

Guaranteed Income: Chronicle of a Political Death Foretold

Chapman Law Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 05 Feb 2020 Last Revised: 02 Mar 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 143 (248,297)

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Guaranteed income, negative income tax, universal basic income, Milton Friedman, Rose Friedman, Congress

38.

So Long Suckers: Bargaining and Betrayal in Breaking Bad

Journal of Strategic Contracting and Negotiation, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 02 Feb 2016 Last Revised: 24 Dec 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 143 (248,297)

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Bargaining game, Breaking Bad (TV show), negotiation, So Long Sucker (game)

39.

The Evolutionary Path of the Law

Indonesian Journal of International Law, vol. 1, no. 3 (July 2014), Forthcoming
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 04 Jun 2014 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 138 (255,400)
Citation 1

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Altruism, Cooperation, Prisoner's Dilemma, Law, Science

40.

Judge Hercules or Judge Bayes? (Newcomb's Paradox and the Prediction Theory of Law)

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 12 Jan 2015 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 131 (265,764)

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Hard Cases, Newcomb’s Paradox, Prediction Theory of Law

41.

El Caso de Puerto Rico: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of the Puerto Rican Status Debate

American University Journal of Gender, Social Policy & the Law, Vol. 18, No. 3, 2010
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 02 Dec 2009 Last Revised: 23 Jun 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 128 (270,409)
Citation 2

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costly war of attrition, evolutionarily stable strategies, hawk-dove game

42.

A Beautiful Life: Some Lessons for Legal Scholars

Mississippi College School of Law Research Paper
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 22 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 06 Mar 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 123 (278,662)

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Albert O. Hirschman, emotions, enforcement, evasion

43.

Deconstructing Darwin

Griffith Law Review (Australia), vol. 14, no. 2 (2005), pp. 247-267
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 15 Aug 2009 Last Revised: 05 Dec 2014
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 119 (285,506)

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Darwin, Tierra del Fuego

44.

The Case for Bayesian Judges: Putting Posner and Vermeule into Practice

Journal of Legal Metrics, Vol. 6, No. 1 (2019), pp. 13-20
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 09 Jan 2018 Last Revised: 24 Dec 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 115 (292,324)

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Bayesian voting, degrees of belief, confidence levels, judicial voting, appellate judges

45.

Antiblue: A Rational & Simple System of Legal Citation

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 05 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 23 Nov 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 103 (315,413)

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Parenthetical Citation, Bibliography

46.

The Problem with Precedent

Vienna Journal on International Constitutional Law, Vol. 12, no. 4 (Forthcoming)
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 24 Jun 2018 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 99 (325,864)

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precedent, stare decisis, circular reasoning, Bayesian judging

47.

Condorcet's Paradox and Puerto Rico Status

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 10 Aug 2016 Last Revised: 17 Apr 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 92 (339,234)

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Condorcet cycle, Bayesian voting, Puerto Rico

48.

Law Is a Battlefield: The Colonel Blotto Litigation Game

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 01 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 13 Dec 2016
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 92 (339,234)

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Colonel Blotto, all-pay auction, strategy

49.

Subjective Probability and Legal Proof: A Ramsian Reply to Allen and Pardo

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 11 Jun 2018 Last Revised: 03 Aug 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 88 (348,869)

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Legal Proof, Relative Plausibility, Subjective Probability, Frank Ramsey, Ramsian Verdicts

50.

Betting on Conspiracy Theories (Lessons from Kurt Gödel and the Leibniz Cover-Up)

Number of pages: 33
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 85

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Betting Markets, Conspiracy Theories, Kurt Godel,

51.

Excerpts from 'The Best and Worst of Contracts Decisions: An Anthology' (Val Ricks, Editor) - Part 1: A Bayesian Defense of the Rule in Hadley v. Baxendale - Part 2: Sherwood v. Walker: Replevin for Rose Redux

Florida State University Law Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 18 Sep 2017 Last Revised: 21 May 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 75 (383,282)

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Hadley v. Baxendale, Sherwood v. Walker, mistake, probability, remedies

52.

Domestic Constitutional Violence

UA Little Rock Law Review, Vol. 41 (2019), pp. 211-232.
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 24 Jan 2019 Last Revised: 28 May 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 71 (395,072)

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Cooper v. Aaron, Little Rock Crisis, Necessity

53.

Weyl Versus Ramsey: A Bayesian Voting Primer

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 03 Sep 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 57 (441,784)

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Frank Ramsey, degrees of belief, subjective probability, quadratic voting, Ramsian voting

54.

Exit, Voice, and Boilerplate

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 25 Jun 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 49 (472,293)

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contracts, markets, morality, boilerplate

55.

(Book Review) Frank Ramsey’s Contributions to Probability Theory and Legal Theory

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 24 Apr 2020 Last Revised: 14 Jul 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 42 (502,344)

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degrees of belief, litigation, subjective probability, Thomas Bayes, Cheryl Misak, Frank Ramsey

56.

Bitcoin, the Commerce Clause, and Bayesian Stare Decisis

Chapman Law Review, Vol. 22, No. 1 (2019), pp. 143-160
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 24 May 2019
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 42 (502,344)
Citation 1

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Bayesian Voting, Bitcoin, South Dakota v. Wayfair, Stare Decisis

57.

Life, Love, and Law: An Epistolary Exchange

University of Puerto Rico Law Review (Revista Juridica de la Universidad de Puerto Rico), Vol. 80, No. 4, pp. 995-1003, 2011
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 30 Sep 2011 Last Revised: 13 Jul 2020
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 33 (546,559)

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David Hume, Social Contract, Arms Races

Other Papers (2)

Total Downloads: 1,115
1.

Hacking Harvard: Law, Ethics, and the Dawn of the Facebook Era

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 15 Jan 2016 Last Revised: 23 Jan 2018
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 1,057

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Business law, ethics, legal environment

2.

Research Fraud as Tort

Science, Vol. 349, No. 6255 (25 Sept. 2015), pp. 1459-1460
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 25 Sep 2015
F. E. Guerra-Pujol
University of Central Florida
Downloads 58

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intentional torts, fraudulent misrepresentation, research fraud