Tobias F. Rötheli

University of Erfurt

Professor of Macroeconomics

Postfach 900 221

Nordhauserstrasse 63

D-99105 Erfurt

Germany

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

32

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Top 16,465

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3,548

SSRN CITATIONS
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SSRN RANKINGS

Top 34,327

in Total Papers Citations

10

CROSSREF CITATIONS

13

Scholarly Papers (32)

1.

Causes of the Financial Crisis: Risk Misperception, Policy Mistakes, and Banks’ Bounded Rationality

Journal of Socio-Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 28 Nov 2009 Last Revised: 15 Mar 2010
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 694 (43,979)
Citation 5

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financial crisis, bounded rationality

2.

Business Forecasting and the Development of Business Cycle Theory

History of Political Economy, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 17 Jul 2006
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 410 (85,072)
Citation 1

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Business cycle forecasting, investment modeling, perfect foresight

3.

Teaching the Principles of Interest Rate Determination

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Aug 2004
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 350 (102,024)

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4.

Innovations in Banking Practices and the Credit Boom of the 1920s

Business History Review, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 24 Apr 2009 Last Revised: 18 Dec 2012
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 232 (156,703)
Citation 2

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Banking Principles, Credit Booms, Competitive Strategies

5.

Pattern-Based Expectations: International Experimental Evidence and Applications in Financial Economics

Review of Economics and Statistics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 09 May 2008 Last Revised: 06 Jul 2010
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 202 (178,665)

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Pattern extrapolation, behavioral model of expectations, experimental economics, stock price determination, forward discount on the foreign exchange market

6.

Boundedly Rational Banks’ Contribution to the Credit Cycle

Journal of Socio-Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 09 Jun 2009 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2012
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 162 (216,812)
Citation 1

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Boundedly rational learning, loan-loss expectations, credit cycle

7.

The Kuznets Curve: Determinants of its Shape and the Role of Finance

Studies in Economics and Finance
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 22 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 15 Oct 2010
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 132 (256,078)

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Kuznets curve, growth and inequality, finance

The Superiority of Monetary over Barter Exchange: Experimental Results and Policy Implications

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 09 Jul 2008 Last Revised: 25 Nov 2009
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 126 (266,230)

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Advantages of monetary exchange, experimental monetary economics, bounded rationality

The Superiority of Monetary Over Barter Exchange: Experimental Results and Policy Implications

Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 58, Issue 4, pp. 437-454, 2011
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 15 Jun 2011
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 3 (765,600)
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9.

Appreciation Pressures and Real Depreciation: The Experience with the Swiss Franc-Euro Exchange Rate Floor

International Business Research, Vol. 9, No. 8, 2016
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 14 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 24 Jun 2016
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 118 (278,340)

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Exchange rate floor, international inflation differential, monetary policy

10.

Applied Welfare Economics with Bounded Rationality: Public Policies Toward Remote Sensing

International Advances in Economic Research, Vol. 11, No. 1, February 2005
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 06 Sep 2004
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 111 (290,601)

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Welfare Economics, Remote Sensing, Bounded Rationality, Agriculture and Development, Satellite Financing, Provision and Financing of Information

11.

Output Growth and Output Variability: Quantifying Connections and Tradeoffs

Review of Economics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 03 May 2011 Last Revised: 20 Dec 2011
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 110 (292,403)

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Growth, Stabilization, Aims of Economic Policy

12.

Macroeconomics: A Behavioral Perspective

Forthcoming in “Real World Decision Making: An Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics” Edited by Morris Altman
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 18 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 29 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 108 (296,266)

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behavioral economics, business cycles, psychological factors

13.

Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations

Number of pages: 46 Posted: 15 Jun 2013 Last Revised: 26 Jan 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 100 (312,139)

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inflation expectations, pattern extrapolation, behavioral model of expectations, experimental economics

14.

Book Review of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Forthcoming: Foresight, the journal of future studies, strategic thinking and policy
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 19 Dec 2016
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 88 (338,486)

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15.

Generalization of Information, Granger Causality, and Forecasting

Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 07 Feb 2009 Last Revised: 31 Aug 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 83 (350,667)

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Information use, forecasting, contagion

16.

On Thin Ice: Risk, Return and Crash

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 07 Jul 2016 Last Revised: 28 Aug 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 61 (414,938)

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Risk taking, individual and collective risk, typology of risk takers

17.

To Consume or to Save: Are We Maximizing or What?

Handbook of Behavioural Economics and Smart Decision-Making, edited by Morris Altman, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 30 Nov 2014 Last Revised: 22 May 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 60 (418,381)

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Consumption, Saving, Optimization, Behavioral Economics

18.

Should Business Rely on Business Cycle Forecasting?

Central European Journal of Operations Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 10 Oct 2015 Last Revised: 09 May 2017
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 55 (436,009)
Citation 1

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Forecasting, Business Cycle

19.

Ideas on Expectations

Real World Decision Making: An Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics, Ed. Morris Altman, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 17 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 26 Feb 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 48 (462,516)

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Rational and extrapolative expectations

20.

The Success of Business Forecasting: Comparisons Across Industries

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 20 Sep 2019
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 42 (488,025)

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forecasting accuracy, use of forecasting

21.

Sudden and Violent Changes in Long-Term Expectations: Keynes and Reality

Forthcoming in "Taking up the Challenge!", 2015, Festschrift for Jürgen Backhaus, Helge Peukert (Ed.), Weimar bei Marburg, Metropolis
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 10 Apr 2015 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2015
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 40 (496,877)

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Long-term expectations, Keynes, business cycle

22.

The Credit Cycle: A Behavioral Perspective

Forthcoming in “Real World Decision Making: An Encyclopedia of Behavioral Economics” Edited by Morris Altman
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 18 Jan 2014 Last Revised: 29 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 32 (535,947)

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credit cycle, bank behavior

23.

Oligopolistic Banks, Bounded Rationality, and the Credit Cycle

Tobias F. Rötheli, “Oligopolistic Banks, Bounded Rationality, and the Credit Cycle,” Economics Research International, vol. 2012, Article ID 961316, 4 pages, 2012. doi:10.1155/2012/961316
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 06 Apr 2012 Last Revised: 20 Jul 2012
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 32 (535,947)

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24.

Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations and the U.S. Real Rate of Interest

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 29 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 31 (541,207)

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real interest rate, behavioral model of inflation expectations, inflation risk premium

25.

The 8½ Equations Version of the Quantity Theory of Money

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 27 Mar 2020
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 28 (557,973)

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Quantity Theory of Money, Low Inflation, Monetary Policy, Liquidity Trap

26.

The Effects of Producers’ Expectations on Output Variations in EU-Countries

Forthcoming in International Journal of Economics and Finance
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 20 Dec 2012 Last Revised: 27 Jan 2014
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 27 (563,840)

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Producers’ expectations, survey data, EU countries

27.

Heuristics versus Econometrics as a Basis For Forecasting International Inflation Differentials

Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 25 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 13 Nov 2018
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 25 (576,381)

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International inflation differentials, exchange rate regime, deflation

28.

One Plus One Equals Two: More or Less

Number of pages: 8 Posted: 18 Feb 2021
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 17 (629,401)

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Arithmetic, interacting units, units with multiple dimensions

29.

Expectations and the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Sectoral Survey Data

Number of pages: 14 Posted: 28 Jun 2019
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 15 (643,435)

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Inflation, expectations, survey data, sectoral analysis

30.

The Business Cycle and the Cycles of Behavioral Economics

Number of pages: 29 Posted: 06 Apr 2021
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt
Downloads 6 (709,727)

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Behavioral Economics, Business Cycles, Expectations

31.

A Theory of Relativity of Cultures, Incomes and Happiness

Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, 33(1) 54–73, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1177/0260107921989905
Posted: 17 Jul 2019 Last Revised: 04 Apr 2021
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt

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cultural relativism, hedonic relativism, diligence, output quality, happiness

32.

Producers' Expectations: Their Role in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism

Posted: 09 Feb 2001
Tobias F. Rötheli
University of Erfurt

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