Jonathan Mellon

University of Manchester

Hallsworth Fellow

Oxford Road

Manchester, M13 9PL

United Kingdom

  • University of Manchester

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

31

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Top 29,544

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12

CROSSREF CITATIONS

18

Scholarly Papers (31)

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1.

Tremors But No Youthquake: Measuring Changes in the Age and Turnout Gradients at the 2015 and 2017 British General Elections

Number of pages: 54 Posted: 06 Feb 2018 Last Revised: 15 Jan 2021
Christopher Prosser, Edward A. Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Jonathan Mellon and Geoffrey Evans
University of London - Royal Holloway, University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, University of Manchester and Nuffield College, University of Oxford
Downloads 2,509 (6,600)
Citation 11

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Turnout, Survey weighting, Ecological Fallacy, British politics

2.

Effects of the Internet on Participation: Study of a Public Policy Referendum in Brazil

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7204
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 20 Apr 2016
Paolo Spada, Jonathan Mellon, Tiago Peixoto and Fredrik M. Sjoberg
University of British Columbia (UBC), University of Manchester, World Bank - Governance Global Practice and World Bank
Downloads 2,325 (7,439)

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Technology Industry, Political Systems and Analysis, National Governance, ICT Policy and Strategies, Parliamentary Government

3.

Rain, Rain, Go Away: 176 Potential Exclusion-Restriction Violations for Studies Using Weather as an Instrumental Variable

Number of pages: 112 Posted: 02 Dec 2020 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2021
Jonathan Mellon
University of Manchester
Downloads 1,964 (9,821)
Citation 4

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instrumental variable, IV regression, weather, rain, exclusion restriction

4.

Missing Non-Voters and Misweighted Samples: Explaining the 2015 Great British Polling Miss

Number of pages: 35 Posted: 15 Jul 2015 Last Revised: 13 Jan 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
University of Manchester and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 1,261 (19,651)
Citation 3

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polling miss; british election 2015; differential turnout; shy tories; late swing; don't know; representative samples; survey weighting; online polling; question ordering; survey methodology; political polling; public opinion

5.

Aggregate Turnout Is Mismeasured

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 12 Jan 2018 Last Revised: 29 Jan 2021
Jonathan Mellon, Geoffrey Evans, Edward A. Fieldhouse, Jane Green and Christopher Prosser
University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 1,207 (21,018)

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turnout, vep, vap, idea, aggregate, comparative politics, error, measurement, bias

6.

The Effect of Government Responsiveness on Future Political Participation

Number of pages: 33 Posted: 07 Mar 2015
Fredrik M. Sjoberg, Jonathan Mellon and Tiago Peixoto
World Bank, University of Manchester and World Bank - Governance Global Practice
Downloads 815 (36,849)
Citation 8

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Government Responsiveness, Participation, Fix My Street, ICT, Crowdsourcing

7.

Brexit or Corbyn? Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election

Jonathan Mellon, Geoffrey Evans, Edward Fieldhouse, Jane Green, Christopher Prosser; Brexit or Corbyn? Campaign and Inter-Election Vote Switching in the 2017 UK General Election, Parliamentary Affairs, DOI: org/10.1093/pa/gsy001
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 21 Nov 2017 Last Revised: 28 May 2018
Jonathan Mellon, Geoffrey Evans, Edward A. Fieldhouse, Jane Green and Christopher Prosser
University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 704 (44,992)
Citation 2

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2017 British election, british election study, vote switching, UKIP, Brexit

8.

Twitter and Facebook are Not Representative of the General Population: Political Attitudes and Demographics of Social Media Users

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 09 Jun 2016
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
University of Manchester and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 572 (58,833)
Citation 11

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9.

Party Attachment in Great Britain: Five Decades of Dealignment

Number of pages: 4 Posted: 10 Aug 2017
Jonathan Mellon
University of Manchester
Downloads 381 (96,148)
Citation 2

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Voter Volatility

10.

Mainstream Protest Voting: Did Voters Choose Brexit and Corbyn because they expected them to lose?

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 04 Aug 2017 Last Revised: 10 Jun 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
University of Manchester and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 372 (98,738)
Citation 1

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expressive voting, British politics, expectations, EU referendum, Brexit, British Election Study

11.

Volatility, Realignment and Electoral Shocks: Brexit and the UK General Election of 2019

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 15 Jan 2021
Edward A. Fieldhouse, Geoffrey Evans, Jane Green, Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, University of Manchester and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 369 (99,680)

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realignment, Brexit, volatility, 2019 General Election, electoral shocks

12.

Tactical Voting and Electoral Pacts in the 2019 UK General Election

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 31 Mar 2020 Last Revised: 01 Jul 2021
Jonathan Mellon
University of Manchester
Downloads 362 (101,903)
Citation 1

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13.

Which Promises Actually Matter? Election Pledge Centrality and Promissory Representation

Number of pages: 65 Posted: 13 Nov 2018 Last Revised: 24 Nov 2019
Jonathan Mellon, Christopher Prosser, Jordan Urban and Adam Feldman
University of Manchester, University of London - Royal Holloway, University of Cambridge and University of Warwick
Downloads 204 (183,151)

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promise keeping, promissory representation, UK politics, manifestos, pledge fulfillment, brexit, EU

14.

How Do Coronavirus Attitudes Fit into Britain's Ideological Landscape?

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 22 Nov 2020
Jonathan Mellon, Jack Bailey and Christopher Prosser
University of Manchester, University of Manchester and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 179 (205,953)

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COVID-19, british election study, voter behaviour, liberal-authoritarianism, left-right, economic values, lockdown, party competition

15.

Authoritarianism, Social Structure and Economic Policy Preferences

Number of pages: 37 Posted: 22 Aug 2017 Last Revised: 16 Apr 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
University of Manchester and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 166 (219,664)
Citation 2

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authoritarianism, left right, dimensions, public opinions, british elections, elite, mass, libertarianism

16.

Spurious Time Trends Explain the Relationship between Survey Nonresponse and Mass Polarization: A Comment on Cavari and Freedman (2018)

Number of pages: 10 Posted: 14 Mar 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
University of Manchester and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 159 (227,799)

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Polarization, non-response bias, spurious correlation, time trend

17.

Do Mobile Phone Surveys Work in Poor Countries?

Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 398
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 27 Jun 2015
Benjamin Leo, Robert Morello, Jonathan Mellon, Tiago Peixoto and Stephen T Davenport
Center for Global Development, Center for Global Development, University of Manchester, World Bank - Governance Global Practice and World Bank - Governance Global Practice
Downloads 150 (239,079)
Citation 6

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mobile phone surveys, mobile phones, zimbabwe, ethiopia, mozambique, afghanistan

18.

Correcting Polling Error in Over-Engaged Samples Using Representative Turnout Weighting

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 24 Jan 2016
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
University of Manchester and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 144 (247,244)
Citation 1

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polling miss; british election 2015; representative samples; survey weighting; online polling; survey methodology; political polling; public opinion

19.

Volatile Elite Networks and the Race for the Zimbabwean Succession

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 17 Nov 2017
Jonathan Mellon and Dan Evans
University of Manchester and United States Military Academy, West Point - Network Science Center
Downloads 116 (290,985)
Citation 1

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Network Science, Network Analysis, Zimbabwe, Political Succession

20.

Making Inferences About Elections and Public Opinion Using Incidentally Collected Data

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 28 Jun 2016 Last Revised: 01 Nov 2016
Jonathan Mellon
University of Manchester
Downloads 99 (324,141)
Citation 1

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internet data, big data, public opinion, google trends, twitter, censorship, social media, election forecasting

21.

Gender and Political Mobilization Online: Participation and Policy Success on a Global Petitioning Platform

Ash Center Occasional Paper, July 2017
Number of pages: 61 Posted: 22 Mar 2018
Jonathan Mellon, Hollie Russon-Gilman, Fredrik M. Sjoberg and Tiago Peixoto
University of Manchester, Harvard University, World Bank and World Bank - Governance Global Practice
Downloads 74 (386,635)
Citation 2

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gender representation, political participation, online petitions, descriptive representation and substantive representation, descriptive success and substantive success

22.

Do Mobile Phone Surveys Work in Poor Countries?

Center for Global Development Working Paper No. 398
Number of pages: 65 Posted: 24 Apr 2015
Ben Leo, Robert Morello, Jonathan Mellon, Tiago Peixoto and Stephen T Davenport
Center for Global Development, Center for Global Development, University of Manchester, World Bank - Governance Global Practice and World Bank - Governance Global Practice
Downloads 70 (398,598)
Citation 8

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mobile phone surveys, mobile phones, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Afghanistan

23.

The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses

Prosser, C., & Mellon, J. (2018). The Twilight of the Polls? A Review of Trends in Polling Accuracy and the Causes of Polling Misses. Government and Opposition, 1-34. DOI:10.1017/gov.2018.7
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 04 Jun 2018
Christopher Prosser and Jonathan Mellon
University of London - Royal Holloway and University of Manchester
Downloads 63 (421,262)

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polling, survey error, non-probability samples, late swing, shy voters, turnout filtering, representative samples, survey weighting

24.

Constructing Continuous Household Income Measurement on the British Election Study Internet Panel

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 04 May 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Christopher Prosser
University of Manchester and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 48 (476,907)
Citation 2

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25.

Experimental Evidence for a Link between Labor Market Competition and Anti-Immigrant Attitudes

Number of pages: 45 Posted: 06 Jul 2017 Last Revised: 04 Jul 2019
Jonathan Mellon
University of Manchester
Downloads 48 (476,907)
Citation 1

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immigration, labor market, economic threat, survey experiments, british election study

26.

Information Flows within the US State Department

Number of pages: 39 Posted: 30 May 2014
Jonathan Mellon
University of Manchester
Downloads 44 (494,100)

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social network analysis, gap models, US State Department, bureaucracies, issue salience

27.

All You Have to Do Is Ask: Measuring Uncertainty in Vote Intention

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 26 Apr 2017
Jonathan Mellon
University of Manchester
Downloads 41 (507,573)

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Vote Volatility, Vote Switching, Uncertainty, Forecasting, British Election Study

28.

Leading the Conversation: Comparing State Department Communication Networks Under Rogers and Kissinger

International Studies Association, 2014
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 29 May 2014
James Hollway and Jonathan Mellon
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (IHEID) and University of Manchester
Downloads 33 (547,268)

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networks, state department, bureaucracies

29.

The Puzzle of High Partisanship Among Ethnic Minority Young People in Great Britain

Number of pages: 19 Posted: 08 Jun 2018
Nicole Martin and Jonathan Mellon
University of Manchester and University of Manchester
Downloads 27 (581,583)

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ethnicity, party identity, partisanship, socialisation, immigration

30.

Forecasting Social Network Reaction to Disruption: Current Practices and New Directions

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 22 Mar 2018
Jonathan Mellon and Dan Evans
University of Manchester and United States Military Academy, West Point - Network Science Center
Downloads 26 (588,021)

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Social Network, Disruption, Recovery, Intervention, ERGM, SAOM, SIENA, Logistics, Neuroscience, Key Players

31.

UK Aggregate Turnout is Mismeasured

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 18 Feb 2021
Jonathan Mellon, Jack Bailey, Geoffrey Evans, Edward A. Fieldhouse, Jane Green and Christopher Prosser
University of Manchester, University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, University of Manchester, Nuffield College, University of Oxford and University of London - Royal Holloway
Downloads 25 (594,404)

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turnout, vep, vap, idea, aggregate, comparative politics, error, measurement, bias