Ray C. Fair

Yale University - Cowles Foundation

John M. Musser Professor of Economics, Cowles Foundation

Box 208281

New Haven, CT 06520-8281

United States

http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu

Yale School of Management - International Center for Finance

Box 208200

New Haven, CT 06520

United States

http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

84

DOWNLOADS
Rank 3,403

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 3,403

in Total Papers Downloads

13,809

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 2,284

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 2,284

in Total Papers Citations

148

CROSSREF CITATIONS

433

Scholarly Papers (84)

1.

Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates

Number of pages: 31 Posted: 09 Feb 2001
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1,232 (20,369)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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2.

Risk Aversion and Stock Prices

Yale ICF Working Paper No. 02-36, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1382
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 10 Oct 2002
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1,121 (23,447)

Abstract:

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Risk Aversion, Stock Prices

3.
Downloads 715 ( 44,062)
Citation 22

Events that Shook the Market

Number of pages: 30 Posted: 12 Sep 2000
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 715 (43,444)
Citation 22

Abstract:

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Events that Shook the Market

Posted: 21 Nov 2003
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation

Abstract:

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4.

The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford

Number of pages: 10 Posted: 13 Jun 2001
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 705 (44,912)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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5.

Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics

Number of pages: 42 Posted: 22 Jun 2005
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 660 (48,995)

Abstract:

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equilibrium, natural concepts

6.

On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1300
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 20 Jun 2001
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 655 (49,454)

Abstract:

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7.

Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models

Yale ICF Working Paper No. 00-69, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1345
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 09 Jan 2002
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 633 (51,780)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Bootstrapping, Stochastic Simulation

Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits

Yale ICF Working Paper No. 09-22
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 29 Sep 2009 Last Revised: 27 Oct 2009
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 290 (128,962)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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federal deficit, federal debt

Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1727
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 28 Sep 2009 Last Revised: 22 Feb 2010
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 210 (178,036)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Federal deficit, Federal debt

9.

Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

Yale ICF Working Paper No. 01-39, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1298
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 20 Jun 2001
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 460 (77,148)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Rules

10.

Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s

Yale ICF Working Paper No. 02-48, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1388
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 21 Dec 2002
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 436 (82,160)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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New Economy, Stability Tests

11.
Downloads 423 ( 85,165)
Citation 7

Has Macro Progressed?

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1728
Number of pages: 32 Posted: 28 Sep 2009 Last Revised: 19 Jul 2010
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 267 (140,675)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Macro process

Has Macro Progressed?

Yale ICF Working Paper No. 09-21
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 30 Sep 2009 Last Revised: 27 Oct 2009
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 156 (231,941)
Citation 9

Abstract:

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macro progress

12.

College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency

Yale ICF Working Paper No. 02-35, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1381
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 10 Oct 2002
Ray C. Fair and John F. Oster
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Choate Rosemary Hall
Downloads 408 (88,809)

Abstract:

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Football Rankings, Predictive Information

Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1570, Yale ICF Working Paper No. 06-23
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 19 Jul 2006
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 348 (105,716)

Abstract:

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Inflation targeting, Interest rate rules, Optimal control

Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model

Economics Discussion Paper No. 2007-14
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 29 Nov 2010
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 29 (584,871)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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inflation targeting, interest rate rules, optimal control

Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model

Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 1, 2007-8
Number of pages: 52 Posted: 18 Dec 2010
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 24 (619,287)

Abstract:

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inflation targeting, interest rate rules, optimal control

14.

Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1706, Yale ICF Working Paper No. 10
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 11 Jun 2009 Last Revised: 14 Aug 2010
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 354 (104,525)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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Macroeconomic forecasting, Recessions, Booms

15.

Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1634, Yale Economics Department Working Paper No. 32, Yale ICF Working Paper No. 07-19
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 03 Jan 2008
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 302 (124,261)

Abstract:

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Term structure equations, Expectations theory

16.

Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess

Yale ICF Working Paper No. 04-43, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1495
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 24 Nov 2004
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 302 (124,261)

Abstract:

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17.

A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1577, Yale ICF Working Paper No. 06-24
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 13 Sep 2006
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 295 (127,298)

Abstract:

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Federal chairmen, optimal control, economic performance

18.

Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1635, Yale Economics Department Working Paper No. 33, Yale ICF Working Paper No. 07-18
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 03 Jan 2008
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 282 (133,526)

Abstract:

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Exchange rate equations, Uncovered interest rate parity

19.

Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations

Number of pages: 22 Posted: 20 Jun 2001
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 272 (138,593)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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20.

Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1755
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 11 Mar 2010
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 268 (140,738)

Abstract:

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Yuan appreciation

21.

Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years Later

ICF Working Paper No. 05-25, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1529
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 23 Jul 2005
Ray C. Fair and Danielle Catambay
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Yale School of Management
Downloads 226 (166,347)

Abstract:

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Branch Rickey's equation, on-base percentage

22.

Estimated Age Effects in Baseball

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1536
Number of pages: 47 Posted: 19 Oct 2005
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 217 (172,905)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Aging, baseball performance

23.

Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy

Number of pages: 36 Posted: 20 Jan 2005
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 191 (194,488)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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fiscal policy, monetary policy

24.

Reflections on Macro-Econometric Modeling

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1908
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 10 Sep 2013 Last Revised: 27 Mar 2014
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 189 (196,334)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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macro-econometric modeling

25.

The Financial Crisis and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008-2013

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1944
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 29 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 18 Feb 2015
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 188 (197,256)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Financial crisis, Wealth effects

26.

Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 24 Nov 2004
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 150 (239,079)

Abstract:

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27.

Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1579, Yale ICF Working Paper No. 06-25, Journal of Political Economy, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 30 Posted: 19 Sep 2006
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 149 (240,396)

Abstract:

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Election polls, Predictive uncertainty

28.
Downloads 134 (261,648)
Citation 6

Some Important Macro Points

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2165
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 19 Feb 2019
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 77 (382,057)

Abstract:

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Macro models, Macro properties

Some Important Macro Points

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2165R, July 2019
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 07 Aug 2019
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 57 (449,093)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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Macro models, Macro properties

What it Takes to Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1807
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 09 Jul 2011 Last Revised: 16 May 2012
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 117 (290,674)

Abstract:

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Federal deficit, Debt/GDP ratio

What it Takes to Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem

Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 30, Issue 4, pp. 618-628, 2012
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 06 Oct 2012
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1 (813,624)
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30.
Downloads 107 (307,827)
Citation 27

Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1602
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 14 Feb 2007
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 55 (456,822)

Abstract:

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Vote-share equations, Coattail effects

Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations

European Journal of Political Economy, Forthcoming, Yale ICF Working Paper No. 07-01
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 14 Feb 2007
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 52 (468,617)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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vote-share equations, coattail effects

Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1756
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 11 Mar 2010 Last Revised: 20 May 2010
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 83 (365,358)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Stimulus effects, Government spending multipliers

Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill

Contemporary Economic Policy, Vol. 28, Issue 4, pp. 439-452, October 2010
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 15 Sep 2010
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 1 (813,624)
Citation 2
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Abstract:

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32.

Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1861
Number of pages: 21 Posted: 10 May 2012 Last Revised: 27 Mar 2014
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 75 (383,804)

Abstract:

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Fiscal stimulus, Multipliers

33.

A World Macro Saving Fact and an Explanation

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1776
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 05 Jan 2011
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 72 (392,547)

Abstract:

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Financial saving, World economy

Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models: Comment

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2166
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 19 Feb 2019
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 52 (468,617)

Abstract:

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DSGE models, Macro data

Variable Mismeasurement in a Class of DSGE Models: Comment

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 2166R2
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 21 Jul 2020 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2020
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 19 (656,788)

Abstract:

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DSGE models, Macro data

35.

How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1943
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 28 Mar 2014
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 67 (408,035)

Abstract:

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Central Bank, Uncertainty, Stochastic Simulation

36.

Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules

Economic Policy Review, Vol. 7, No. 1, March 2001
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 10 Nov 2005
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 65 (414,541)

Abstract:

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monetary policy, reaction functions

37.

Estimated Costs of Contact in Men's Collegiate Sports

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2101
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 23 Aug 2017 Last Revised: 16 Mar 2018
Ray C. Fair and Christopher Champa
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Yale University, Students
Downloads 62 (424,580)

Abstract:

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Sports Injuries, Collegiate Sports

38.

Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale

NBER Working Paper No. w2095
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 03 May 2004 Last Revised: 25 Mar 2021
Yale University - Cowles Foundation, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics and University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy
Downloads 59 (435,161)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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39.

The Optimal Distribution of Income Revisited

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2031
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 23 Mar 2016
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 52 (460,891)
Citation 8

Abstract:

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optimal taxation; income distribution

40.

U.S. Infrastructure: 1929-2017

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2187, July 2019
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 07 Aug 2019
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 47 (481,134)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Infrastructure

41.

The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts

NBER Working Paper No. w2503
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 16 Jul 2004
Ray C. Fair and Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 45 (489,669)
Citation 4

Abstract:

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42.

How Should the FED Report Uncertainty?

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1864
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 28 Jun 2012
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 44 (494,100)

Abstract:

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Forecasting uncertainty, Fed policy

43.

Estimated Costs of Contact in College and High School Male Sports

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2101R
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 10 Oct 2017 Last Revised: 16 Mar 2018
Ray C. Fair and Christopher Champa
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Yale University, Students
Downloads 42 (502,982)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Sports Injuries, Collegiate Sports

44.

Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation

NBER Working Paper No. w2233
Number of pages: 40 Posted: 04 Jan 2007 Last Revised: 10 Aug 2010
Ray C. Fair and Robert J. Shiller
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 41 (507,573)

Abstract:

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45.

Trade Models and Macroeconomics

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2214
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 16 Dec 2019
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 39 (516,971)

Abstract:

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Trade models, Macroeconomics

46.

Explaining the Slow U.S.Recovery: 2010–2017

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2124
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 15 Mar 2018
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 39 (516,971)

Abstract:

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47.

Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1974
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 19 Dec 2014
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 39 (516,971)

Abstract:

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Financial saving, World economy, Wealth effects

48.

Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations

NBER Working Paper No. w2280
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 19 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 27 Mar 2021
Ray C. Fair and Kathryn M.E. Dominguez
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and University of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy
Downloads 35 (536,714)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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49.

Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2100 (published in Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 100, No. 4, pp. 704-711, 2018)
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 20 Aug 2017 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2020
Ray C. Fair and Edward H. Kaplan
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Yale School of Management
Downloads 33 (547,268)

Abstract:

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Aging Effects, Running Events

50.

The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics

NBER Working Paper No. w3990
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 06 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 29 May 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 33 (547,268)

Abstract:

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51.

Information Limits of Aggregate Data

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2011
Number of pages: 51 Posted: 14 Jul 2015
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 32 (552,562)

Abstract:

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Aggregate data, Macro models

52.

A Multicountry Econometric Model (Revised)

NBER Working Paper No. w0414
Number of pages: 83 Posted: 01 Mar 2001 Last Revised: 19 Feb 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 31 (558,017)

Abstract:

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53.

What Do Price Equations Say About Future Inflation?

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2287
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 26 May 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 30 (563,691)

Abstract:

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Price equations, Inflation, Fed policy

54.

Estimation of Polynomial Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints

NBER Working Paper No. t0079
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 09 Jan 2007 Last Revised: 21 Sep 2010
Donald W. K. Andrews and Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 30 (563,691)

Abstract:

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55.

Estimated Trade-Offs between Unemployment and Inflation

NBER Working Paper No. w1377
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 22 Apr 2004
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 28 (575,488)

Abstract:

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56.

Information Content of DSGE Forecasts

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2140
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 09 Aug 2018
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 27 (581,583)

Abstract:

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DSGE Forecasts, Lagged Values

57.

Learning Causal Relations in Multivariate Time Series Data

Economics Discussion Paper No. 2007-15
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 29 Nov 2010
Ray C. Fair and Pu Chen
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Bielefeld University - Department of Business Administration and Economics
Downloads 27 (581,583)

Abstract:

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Automated Learning, Bayesian Network, Inferred Causation, VAR, Wage-Price Spiral

58.

Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination

NBER Working Paper No. w2105
Number of pages: 45 Posted: 28 May 2004
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 27 (581,583)

Abstract:

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Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rationalexpectations Models

NBER Working Paper No. t0005
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 27 Jun 2007 Last Revised: 09 Jul 2010
Ray C. Fair and John B. Taylor
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Stanford University
Downloads 16 (680,133)
Citation 23

Abstract:

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Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rationalexpectations Models

NBER Working Paper No. t0005
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 24 Jul 2007 Last Revised: 09 Jul 2021
Ray C. Fair and John B. Taylor
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Stanford University
Downloads 10 (729,725)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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60.

How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?

NBER Working Paper No. w3757
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 15 Jan 2007 Last Revised: 09 Apr 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 26 (588,021)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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61.

International Evidence on the Demand for Money

NBER Working Paper No. w2106
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 01 Jun 2004
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 25 (594,404)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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62.

VAR Models as Structural Approximations

NBER Working Paper No. w2495
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 05 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 28 Apr 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 23 (607,631)

Abstract:

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63.

Estimated Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares

NBER Working Paper No. w0696
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 18 Aug 2004 Last Revised: 29 May 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 21 (621,230)

Abstract:

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64.

Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model

NBER Working Paper No. w2150
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 15 Mar 2007 Last Revised: 19 May 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 20 (628,272)

Abstract:

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65.

Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation

NBER Working Paper No. t0111
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 27 Jun 2007 Last Revised: 23 Apr 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 19 (635,232)

Abstract:

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66.

Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy

NBER Working Paper No. w0538
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 04 Sep 2006 Last Revised: 23 Jun 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 19 (635,232)

Abstract:

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67.

The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well

NBER Working Paper No. w2877
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 16 Jul 2004 Last Revised: 14 May 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 19 (635,232)

Abstract:

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68.

Effect of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity

NBER Working Paper No. w1293
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 12 Apr 2004 Last Revised: 16 Jul 2010
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 19 (635,232)

Abstract:

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69.

Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations

NBER Working Paper No. t0078
Number of pages: 24 Posted: 10 Jan 2007 Last Revised: 21 Mar 2021
Ray C. Fair and John B. Taylor
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Stanford University
Downloads 18 (642,316)

Abstract:

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70.

The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models

NBER Working Paper No. w1445
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 16 Jul 2004
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 18 (642,316)

Abstract:

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71.

Estimated Costs of Injuries in College and High School Female Sports

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2188, July 2019
Number of pages: 38 Posted: 08 Aug 2019
Ray C. Fair and Christopher Champa
Yale University - Cowles Foundation and Yale University, Students
Downloads 17 (649,335)

Abstract:

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Sports injuries, Collegiate sports, High school sports

72.

The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update

NBER Working Paper No. w2222
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 31 Jul 2007 Last Revised: 30 Jul 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 17 (649,335)
Citation 17

Abstract:

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73.

Does Monetary Policy Matter? Narrative Versus Structural Approaches

NBER Working Paper No. w3045
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 04 Jan 2007 Last Revised: 29 Apr 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 17 (649,335)

Abstract:

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74.

Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Amongcountries

NBER Working Paper No. w0677
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 22 Apr 2004
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 17 (649,335)

Abstract:

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75.

Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of Deficit Targeting

NBER Working Paper No. w1814
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 22 Apr 2004
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 17 (649,335)

Abstract:

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76.

Variable Mismeasurement in a Class of DSGE Models: Comment

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2166R, July 2019
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 07 Aug 2019
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 15 (663,793)

Abstract:

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DSGE models, Macro data

77.

A Comparison of Fiml and Robust Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconomic Model

NBER Working Paper No. w0015
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 06 Dec 2006 Last Revised: 19 Jul 2010
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 15 (663,793)

Abstract:

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78.

A Comment on Feldstein's Fisher-Schultz Lecture

NBER Working Paper No. w0716
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 18 Aug 2004 Last Revised: 13 Sep 2008
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 14 (671,242)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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79.

Are Stock Returns and Output Growth Higher Under Democrats?

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2277
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 26 Feb 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 13 (678,799)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Stock returns, Output growth, Political parties

80.

Excess Labor and the Business Cycle

NBER Working Paper No. w1292
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 22 Apr 2004 Last Revised: 15 Jul 2010
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 13 (678,799)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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81.

Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model

NBER Working Paper No. w2112
Number of pages: 28 Posted: 24 Jul 2007 Last Revised: 11 Apr 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 10 (701,896)

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82.

Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2260
Number of pages: 42 Posted: 27 Oct 2020
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 9 (709,735)

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Business cycles, Recessions, Expansions

83.

Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior

NBER Working Paper No. w3102
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 10 Oct 2007 Last Revised: 25 Jun 2010
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 7 (725,207)

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84.

Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2279
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 22 Mar 2021
Ray C. Fair
Yale University - Cowles Foundation
Downloads 6 (733,069)

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Retrospective voting, Risk-aversion voting