Daniel Lunn

University of Oxford - Department of Statistics

1 South Parks Road

Oxford OX1 3TG

United Kingdom

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

5

DOWNLOADS
Rank 3,174

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 3,174

in Total Papers Downloads

14,531

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 18,237

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 18,237

in Total Papers Citations

20

CROSSREF CITATIONS

39

Scholarly Papers (5)

1.

Should We Build More Large Dams? The Actual Costs of Hydropower Megaproject Development

Energy Policy, March 2014, pp.1-14.
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 11 Mar 2014 Last Revised: 24 Mar 2014
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 7,067 (1,113)
Citation 8

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Large hydropower dams, Schedule & cost estimates, Cost benefit forecasting, Reference class forecasting, Outside view

2.

Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up

Flyvbjerg, Bent, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, forthcoming, "Regression to the Tail: Why the Olympics Blow Up," accepted for publication, Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space.
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 17 Nov 2020
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 2,253 (7,944)
Citation 1

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Olympic Games, cost; cost overrun; power laws; regression to the tail; financial risk; fragility; convexity; irreversibility; misaligned incentives; tight coupling; Eternal Beginner Syndrome; fat tails; skin-in-the-game; megaevent; megaproject

3.

Five Things You Should Know about Cost Overrun

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 118, December 2018, pp. 174-190
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 06 Oct 2018
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School, Aalborg University, University of Sheffield Management School, The University of Sydney, Independent, Aalborg Municipality, The University of Sydney, University of Oxford - Department of Statistics, Delft University of Technology - Department of Transport and Logistics, Independent, University of Oxford and Delft University of Technology
Downloads 2,033 (9,286)
Citation 1

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cost overrun, cost underestimation, cost forecasting, root causes of cost overrun, behavioral science, optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, delusion, deception, moral hazard, agency, reference class forecasting, de-biasing

4.

Big is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale

Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, 2017, "Big Is Fragile: An Attempt at Theorizing Scale," in Bent Flyvbjerg, ed., The Oxford Handbook of Megaproject Management (Oxford: Oxford University Press), Chapter 4, pp. 60-95.
Number of pages: 39 Posted: 04 Mar 2016 Last Revised: 29 May 2017
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 1,604 (13,580)
Citation 5

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Megaprojects, megaproject management, project management, fragility, scaling, economies of scale, cost overruns, schedule overruns, benefit shortfalls, cost-benefit analysis, welfare economics, debt management, large dams, hydroelectricity

5.

Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China

Atif Ansar, Bent Flyvbjerg, Alexander Budzier, and Daniel Lunn, 2016, 'Does Infrastructure Investment Lead to Economic Growth or Economic Fragility? Evidence from China,' Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 32, no. 3, autumn, pp. 360–390. DOI: 10.1093/oxrep/grw022.
Number of pages: 35 Posted: 06 Sep 2016 Last Revised: 04 Oct 2016
University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Said Business School, University of Oxford - Saïd Business School and University of Oxford - Department of Statistics
Downloads 1,574 (13,985)
Citation 5

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infrastructure, economic growth, fragility, investment theory, China, transport, cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, cost–benefit analysis, optimism bias