J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Professor

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall

3730 Walnut Street

Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340

United States

http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

SCHOLARLY PAPERS

208

DOWNLOADS
Rank 1,333

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Top 1,333

in Total Papers Downloads

25,282

SSRN CITATIONS
Rank 1,017

SSRN RANKINGS

Top 1,017

in Total Papers Citations

125

CROSSREF CITATIONS

1,012

Scholarly Papers (208)

1.

Strategic Planning and Forecasting Fundamentals

THE STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT HANDBOOK, Kenneth Albert, ed., New York: McGraw Hill, 1983
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 16 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 1,690 (11,961)

Abstract:

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Forecasting, strategic planning, strategic decision making, forecasting methods

2.

Illusions in Regression Analysis

Number of pages: 10 Posted: 12 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 1,201 (20,306)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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a priori analysis, decision-making, ex ante testing, forecasting, non-experimental data, statistical significance, uncertainty

3.

Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys

Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 14, pp. 396-402, 1977
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 15 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong and Terry S. Overton
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 1,121 (22,532)
Citation 51

Abstract:

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Marketing research, survey research, quantitative research

4.

Forecasting for Marketing

QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN MARKETING, Second Edition, G. J. Hooley and M. K. Hussey. eds., London: International Thompson Business Press, pp. 92-119, 1999
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong and Rod Brodie
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of Auckland - Department of Marketing
Downloads 807 (35,959)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Marketing, forecasting, effective forecasting, delphi, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, econometric methods, intention, role playing

5.

Sales Forecasting

Number of pages: 16 Posted: 23 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 523 (63,683)

Abstract:

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6.

Effects of Corporate Social Responsibility and Irresponsibility Policies

Journal of Business Research, 2013
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 28 Jan 2013
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 519 (64,110)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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accountability, affirmative action, decision making, ethics, externalities, free markets, minimum wage, paternalism, principle-agent problem, regulation, seer-sucker theory, stakeholder accounting, stakeholder theory, sustainability

7.

Evidence on the Value of Strategic Planning in Marketing: How Much Planning Should a Marketing Planner Plan?

STRATEGIC MARKETING AND MANAGEMENT, H. Thomas, D. Gardner, ed., pp. 73-87, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 1985
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 04 Apr 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and David Reibstein
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 500 (67,187)

Abstract:

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strategic planning, marketing, formal planning, corporate planning

8.

Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections

International Journal of Forecasting, 30(1), 43-54, Revised and extended version of a paper presented at the American Political Science Association (APSA) 2011 Annual Meeting
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 01 Aug 2011 Last Revised: 30 Aug 2014
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 493 (68,348)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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election forecasting, combining, prediction markets, polls, econometric models, expert judgment

9.

Are Top Executives Paid Enough? An Evidence-Based Review

Interfaces, Forthcoming.
Number of pages: 31 Posted: 28 Jan 2013 Last Revised: 01 Feb 2014
Philippe Jacquart and J. Scott Armstrong
EMLYON Business School and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 477 (71,226)

Abstract:

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bonus; cooperatives, corporate governance, democracy, employee selection, executive compensation, incentives, index methods, judgmental bootstrapping, Mondragon, motivation, pay, performance, stakeholders

10.

The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting

Technology Review, pp. 16-24, June/July 1980
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 15 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 04 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 467 (73,107)

Abstract:

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Forecasting value, forecasting, seer-sucker theory

11.

The Global Warming Alarm: Forecasts from the Structured Analogies Method

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 09 Aug 2010 Last Revised: 15 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 442 (78,059)

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DDT, decision making, evidence-based forecasts; global cooling; lobby groups; popular movements; precautionary principle; public policy; scenarios

12.

Competitor-Oriented Objectives: Myth of Market Share

International Journal of Business, Vol. 12, pp. 117-136, 2007
Number of pages: 20 Posted: 25 May 2007
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 440 (78,491)

Abstract:

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Competition, Market Share, Objective, Profitability

13.

Who Should Be Nominated to Run in the 2012 Presidential Election? Long-Term Forecasts Based on Candidates'’ Biographies

APSA 2011 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 01 Aug 2011 Last Revised: 28 Dec 2011
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 421 (82,765)

Abstract:

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elections, forecast, Obama, biography, index method

14.

How to Avoid Exploratory Research

Journal of Advertising Research, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 27-30, 1970
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 25 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 401 (87,793)

Abstract:

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Exploratory Research, marketing research

15.

Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical Research

FORECASTING WITH JUDGMENT, G. Wright and P. Goodwin, eds., John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 269-293, 1998
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 22 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems
Downloads 379 (93,499)

Abstract:

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Forecasting, time series forecasting, integration

16.

Forecasting Methods for Marketing: Review of Empirical Research

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, pp. 335-376, 1987
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong, Rod Brodie and Shelby H. McIntyre
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Auckland - Department of Marketing and Santa Clara University
Downloads 320 (113,005)

Abstract:

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Forecasting, marketing, surveys

17.

Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach

Group & Organization Studies, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 457-475, 1982
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 15 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 26 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 283 (128,744)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Implement changes, organizational change, strategies for changes

18.

Error Measures for Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, pp. 69-80, 1992
Number of pages: 18 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems
Downloads 274 (133,196)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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Forecast accuracy, M-Competition, Relative absolute error, Theil's U

19.

Effects of Portfolio Planning Methods on Decision Making: Experimental Results

International Journal of Research in Marketing, Vol. 11, pp. 73-84, 1994
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Rod Brodie
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of Auckland - Department of Marketing
Downloads 263 (139,487)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Marketing, portfolio planning, managers, investment

20.

Why We Don't Really Know What Statistical Significance Means: A Major Educational Failure

Journal of Marketing Education, Vol. 28, pp. 114-120, August 2006
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 25 May 2007 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
Raymond Hubbard and J. Scott Armstrong
Drake University - College of Business and Public Administration and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 252 (145,016)

Abstract:

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± levels, p values, p < ± criterion, Fisher, Neyman-Pearson, (overlapping)

21.

Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 30 Jun 2008
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 251 (146,156)
Citation 13

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22.

Simple Versus Complex Forecasting: The Evidence

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 15 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 250 (146,156)
Citation 10

Abstract:

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analytics; big data; decision-making; decomposition; econometrics; Occam’s razor.

23.

Findings from Evidence-Based Forecasting: Methods for Reducing Forecast Error

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 22, pp. 583-598, 2006
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 23 May 2007 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 234 (155,830)

Abstract:

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Box-Jenkins, causal forces, causal models, combining forecasts, complex series, conjoint analysis, contrary series, damped seasonality, damped trend, data mining, Delphi, diffusion, game theory, judgmental decomposition, multiple hypotheses, neural nets, prediction markets, rule-based forecasting

24.
Downloads 232 (157,157)
Citation 5

Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices

Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 18, pp. 251-256, 1991
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 19 Aug 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 232 (156,664)
Citation 5

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Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices

Journal of Consumer Research, Vol. 18, pp. 251-256, September 1991
Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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Forecasting, consumer behavior, scientific knowledge, prediction, marketing

25.

The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy

International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Vol. 1, pp. 29-35, June 2005
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 03 Jan 2006 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 228 (159,812)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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forecast method selection, domain knowledge, decomposition, judgmental bootstrapping, causal models, simulated interaction, combining forecasts

26.

Sales Forecasts for Existing Consumer Products and Services: Do Purchase Intentions Contribute to Accuracy?

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 16, pp. 383-397, 2000
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong, Vicki Morwitz and V. Kumar
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, New York University (NYU) - Department of Marketing and University of Houston
Downloads 223 (163,319)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Forecasting, sales forecast, CPG, consumer products, purchase intention

27.

Demand Forecasting: Evidence-Based Methods

Number of pages: 27 Posted: 02 Nov 2017
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 209 (173,537)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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checklist, competitor behavior, forecast accuracy, market share, market size, sales forecasting

28.

Selecting Forecasting Methods

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 200 (180,772)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Accuracy, analogies, combined forecasts, conjoint analysis, cross-sectional data, econometric methods, experiments, expert systems, extrapolation, intentions, judgmental bootstrapping, policy analysis, role playing, rule-based forecasting, structured judgment, track records, and time-series data

29.
Downloads 200 (180,772)
Citation 3

Structured Analogies for Forecasting

Monash University Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Paper No. 17/04
Number of pages: 34 Posted: 08 Mar 2005
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 115 (285,626)
Citation 6

Abstract:

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accuracy, analogies, collaboration, conflict, expert, forecasting, judgment

Structured Analogies for Forecasting

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 30 Jun 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 85 (349,690)

Abstract:

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Availability, Case-based reasoning, Comparison, Decision, Method

Structured Analogies for Forecasting

Posted: 25 Jan 2005
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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Forecasting, expert forecasting, judgmental procedure

30.

How to Make Better Forecasts and Decisions: Avoid Face-to-Face Meetings

FORESIGHT: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, No. 5, pp. 3-15, Fall 2006
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 25 May 2007 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 193 (186,680)

Abstract:

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31.

Teacher Vs. Learner Responsibility in Management Education

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 13 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 04 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 188 (191,174)

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Teaching, teacher, learner, management education, learning behavior changes

The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

Interfaces, pp. 1-12, 2007
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 25 May 2007
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 84 (352,219)

Abstract:

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applications, bargaining, behavior, competitive strategy, decision making, decision analysis, defense, effectiveness/performance, forecasting, foreign policy, leadership, military, organizational studies, strategy, tactics

The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

Number of pages: 13 Posted: 01 Jul 2008
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 67 (401,492)

Abstract:

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applications, bargaining, behavior, competitive strategy, decision making, decision analysis

The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

Interfaces, 2007
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 11 Aug 2010
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 29 (568,405)

Abstract:

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33.
Downloads 177 (201,614)

Forecasting

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 89 (339,710)

Abstract:

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forecasting, predictions, methods

Forecasting

Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 18 Aug 2015
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 88 (342,277)

Abstract:

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forecasting, prediction, projection, prognosis, principles

34.

Natural Learning in Higher Education

Number of pages: 10 Posted: 27 Mar 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 176 (202,614)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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education, learning, natural learning, teacher-responsible learning, experiment

35.

How Should Firms Select Advertising Agencies?

Journal of Marketing, Vol. 60, pp. 131-133, 1996
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 175 (203,574)

Abstract:

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advertising, review, marketing

36.

On the Interpretation of Factor Analysis

Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 70, No. 5, pp. 361-364, 1968
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 25 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong and Peer Soelberg
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 172 (206,652)

Abstract:

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marketing research, factor analysis, data analysis

37.

Quality Control Versus Innovation in Research on Marketing

Journal of Marketing Management, Vol. 11, pp. 655-660, 1995
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 17 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 169 (209,812)

Abstract:

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marketing, research, quality, market research

38.

Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative

Number of pages: 50 Posted: 15 Aug 2015
J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of South Australia - UniSA Business and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 165 (213,950)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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analytics, bias, big data, causality, checklists, combining, elections, index method, judgmental bootstrapping, structured analogies, uncertainty

39.
Downloads 162 (217,403)

A Commentary on Error Measures

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, pp. 99-111, 1992
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 21 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 162 (217,685)

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A Commentary on Error Measures

Posted: 08 Feb 2005
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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Forecasting, error measuring, Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error

40.

Forecasting Elections from Voters' Perceptions of Candidates' Ability to Handle Issues

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 06 Aug 2008 Last Revised: 26 Mar 2012
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 158 (222,042)
Citation 5

Abstract:

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index method, unit weighting, experience table, presidential election, accuracy

41.

Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance

Long Range Planning, Vol. 24, No. 4, pp. 127-129, 1991
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 08 Apr 2005 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 158 (222,042)

Abstract:

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strategic planning, manufacture, quantitative research, formal planning

42.

Social Irresponsibility in Management

Journal of Business Research, Vol. 5, pp. 185-213, September 1977
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 16 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 153 (228,033)
Citation 4

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Obedience to authority, Panalba, role-playing, social accounting, social

43.

An Application of Econometric Models to International Marketing

Journal of Marketing Research, VII, pp. 190-198, May 1970
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 09 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 152 (229,285)

Abstract:

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Econometric models, international marketing, priori information, forecasting, marketing

44.

How to Be Less Persuaded or More Persuasive: Review of Age of Propaganda: The Everyday Use and Abuse of Persuasion by Anthony Pratkanis and Elliot Aronson

Journal of Marketing, Vol. 67, No. 1, pp. 129-130
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 151 (230,563)

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Marketing, propaganda, pursuasion, Pratkanis, Aronson

45.

The Graffiti Solution

Wharton Magazine, Winter 1978
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 16 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 151 (230,563)

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Graffiti, government regulations

46.

Review of Corporate Strategic Planning

Number of pages: 4 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 150 (231,772)

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book review, corporate strategy, planning practices

47.

Combining Forecasts

PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING: A HANDBOOK FOR RESEARCHERS AND PRACTITIONERS, J. Scott Armstrong, ed., Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 23 Jul 2008 Last Revised: 28 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 146 (236,876)

Abstract:

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Consensus, domain knowledge, earnings forecasts, equal weights, group discussion, rule-based forecasting, uncertainty

48.

Factors Influencing Academic Research Productivity: A Survey of Management Scientists

Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 5, pp. 26-27
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 21 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 144 (239,555)

Abstract:

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49.

Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation

Science and Engineering Ethics, Vol. 3, pp. 63-84, 1997
Number of pages: 33 Posted: 15 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 24 Feb 2015
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 142 (242,355)

Abstract:

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Peer reviews, Control, Fairness, and Innovation

50.

Commentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M-Competition)

Number of pages: 49 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 138 (248,035)

Abstract:

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forecasting, methods, review, time series

51.

Answers to Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) in Forecasting

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 14 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 137 (249,495)

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Forecasting Methods and Principles: Evidence-Based Checklists

Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 29 Posted: 09 Aug 2018
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 134 (254,719)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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combining forecasts, data models, decomposition, equalizing, expectations, extrapolation, knowledge models, intentions, Occam’s razor, prediction intervals, predictive validity, regression analysis, uncertainty

Forecasting Methods and Principles: Evidence-Based Checklists

Posted: 20 Oct 2017
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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big data, combining forecasts, decision-making, decomposition, equal weights, expectations, extrapolation, index method, intentions, Occam’s razor, prediction intervals, regression analysis, scenarios, uncertainty

53.

Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to the American Presidential Elections

FORESIGHT: International Journal of Applied Forecasting, No. 3, pp. 10-13, February 2006
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 30 Jun 2014
J. Scott Armstrong and Alfred G. Cuzan
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of West Florida
Downloads 131 (258,209)

Abstract:

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54.

On the Effectiveness of Marketing Planning

New Zealand Journal of Business, Vol. 11, pp. 11-12, October 2004
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 08 Apr 2005 Last Revised: 23 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 131 (258,209)

Abstract:

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marketing planning, formal planning, strategy

55.

Is the Evidence Sufficient to Take Action on Executive Pay? Reply to Commentators

Interfaces, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 04 Jul 2013 Last Revised: 01 Feb 2014
Philippe Jacquart and J. Scott Armstrong
EMLYON Business School and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 129 (261,260)

Abstract:

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corporate governance, executive compensation, incentives, Mondragon, say-on-pay

56.

Guidelines for Science: Evidence and Checklists

Scholarly Commons, 1-24-17
Number of pages: 37 Posted: 20 Oct 2017
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 124 (269,116)
Citation 3

Abstract:

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advocacy, econometrics, evidence-based checklists, experiments, multiple hypotheses, objectivity, reg ression analysis, replication, statistical significance

57.

The Panalba Role Playing Case

November 2001
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 16 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 119 (277,449)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Role playing, social responsibility

58.

Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts

Energy & Environment, Vol. 18, Nos. 7-8, 2007
Number of pages: 27 Posted: 30 Jun 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 118 (279,062)

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accuracy, audit, climate change, evaluation, expert judgment

59.

Competitor Orientation: Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability

Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 33, pp. 188-199, May 1996
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 05 Apr 2005 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems
Downloads 118 (279,062)
Citation 2

Abstract:

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competitor, management, profitability

60.

The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing

Number of pages: 3 Posted: 14 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 117 (280,767)

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61.

Competition vs. Profitability

Number of pages: 8 Posted: 21 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong, Richard H. Franke and Paul M. Vaclavik
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, affiliation not provided to SSRN and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 113 (287,762)

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62.

Designing and Using Experiential Exercises

Experiential Learning in Marketing Education, No. 11, March 1977
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 13 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 04 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 111 (291,318)

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Experiential learning, learner experience, learning knowledge, exercise experiential learning

63.

Forecasting Decisions in Conflict Situations: A Comparison of Game Theory, Role-Playing, and Unaided Judgment

Number of pages: 24 Posted: 23 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 109 (295,114)

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Conflict, Expert opinion, Forecasting, Game theory, Judgement, Role-playing, Simulation

64.

Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit

Marketing Letters, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 171-187, 2001
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 17 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong, Rod Brodie and Andrew G. Parsons
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Auckland - Department of Marketing and University of Auckland - Department of Marketing
Downloads 108 (297,037)

Abstract:

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Marketing, marketing science, literature reviews, publication audit, hypotheses

65.

Eclectic Research and Construct Validation

MODELS OF BUYER BEHAVIOR: CONCEPTUAL, QUANTATIVE, AND EMPIRICAL, Jagdish N. Sheth, ed., New York: Harper and Row, pp. 3-14, 1974
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 15 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 104 (304,789)

Abstract:

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Research strategies, eclectic researching

66.

Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations

JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING, G. Wright and P. Ayton, eds., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., pp. 157-176, 1987
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 25 Jul 2008 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 103 (306,769)
Citation 1

Abstract:

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Forecasting methods, conflict management, conflict forecast

67.

Predicting Job Performance: A Comparison of Expert Opinion and Research Findings

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, pp. 187-194, 1989
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong and Stephen Dakin
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 102 (308,821)
Citation 1

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Employee selection, Forecasting, Job performance, Predictor validity, Research vs. expert opinion

68.

Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making

TOOLS TO AID ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION MAKING, V.H. Dale and M.E. English, eds., pp. 192-225, New York: Springer-Verlag, 1999
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 13 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 17 Jun 2014
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 102 (308,821)

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Forecasting, forecasting trends, role playing, rule-based forecasting, environmental decision making

69.

Replications and Extensions in Marketing - Rarely Published But Quite Contrary

International Journal of Research in Marketing, Vol. 11, pp. 233-248, 1994
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 21 Jul 2008
Raymond Hubbard and J. Scott Armstrong
Drake University - College of Business and Public Administration and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 99 (314,856)

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70.

Portfolio Planning Methods: Faulty Approach or Faulty Research? A Rejoinder to 'Making Better Decisions' by Wensley

International Journal of Research in Marketing, North-Holland, Vol. 11, pp. 91-93, 1994
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Rod Brodie
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of Auckland - Department of Marketing
Downloads 99 (314,856)

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Marketing, portfolio planning, academic, research, decision making

71.

Brief Vs. Comprehensive Descriptions in Measuring Intentions to Purchase

Journal of Marketing Research, VIII, pp. 114-117, February 1971
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 09 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 29 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong and Terry S. Overton
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 99 (314,856)

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Consumer goods, forecasting, measure purchase intention

72.

Making Progress in Forecasting

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 22, pp. 433-441, 2006
Number of pages: 15 Posted: 23 May 2007 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Robert Fildes
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Lancaster University - Management School
Downloads 97 (319,064)

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Barriers to implementation, Evidence-based forecasting, forecasting practice, forecasting software, freeware, replication

73.

Research Needs in Forecasting

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 4, pp. 449-465, 1988
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 24 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 96 (321,166)

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Acceptance of forecasts, Forecasting audit, Legal aspects, Survey of forecasters.

74.

A Note on the Use of Markov Chains in Forecasting Store Choice

Management Science, Vol. 16, No. 4, December 1969
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 09 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and John U. Farley
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Independent
Downloads 96 (321,166)

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Markov chains, forecasting, marketing, supermarket, forecasting

75.

The Devil's Advocate Responds to an Mba Student's Claim that Research Harms Learning

Journal of Marketing, Vol. 59, pp. 101-106, July 1995
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 25 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 96 (321,166)

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research and learning, MBA education

76.

Brand Trial after a Credibility Change

Journal of Advertising Research, Vol. 10, No. 5, pp. 26-32, 1970
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 16 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and David B. Montgomery
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Stanford Graduate School of Business
Downloads 95 (323,359)

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Branding, marketing, credibility, brand equity, Crest

77.

Commentary on the Makridakis Time Series Competition (M-Competition) Introduction to the Commentary the Accuracy of Alternative Extrapolation Models: Analysis of a Forecasting Competition Through Open Peer Review

Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, pp. 259-311, 1983
Number of pages: 49 Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 08 Jul 2012
J. Scott Armstrong and Edward J. Lusk
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of Pennsylvania - Statistics Department
Downloads 95 (323,359)

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Forecasting, extrapolation models, economic time series, M-competition, Makridakis

78.

Forecasting Principles

M. Lovric, International Encyclopedia on Statistical Science (2010)
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 18 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green, Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 93 (329,982)

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forecasting, principles

79.

Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

Political Science & Politics, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 08 Apr 2013 Last Revised: 15 Jan 2014
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 91 (332,247)

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combining forecasts, forecast accuracy, Iowa Electronic Markets, FiveThirtyEight, econometric models, election forecasting

80.

Moneyball: A Message for Managers

Number of pages: 3 Posted: 30 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 91 (332,247)

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81.

Analyzing Quantitative Models

Journal of Marketing, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 61-66, 1974
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 09 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 29 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong and Alan C. Shapiro
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of Southern California - Marshall School of Business
Downloads 91 (332,247)

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Quantitative Model, forecasting

82.

Book Review of Corporate Strategic Planning, by Noel Capon, John U. Farley, and James M. Hulbert, New York: Columbia University Press, 1988

Journal of Marketing, Vol. 54, pp. 114-119, April 1990
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 08 Apr 2005 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 88 (339,382)

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strategic planning, corporate, planning process, James M. Hulbert

83.

Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising

Number of pages: 18 Posted: 02 Apr 2012 Last Revised: 14 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 87 (341,808)
Citation 1

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consumer protection, corrective advertising, decision making, government regulation, judgment

84.

Forecasting Elections Using Expert Surveys: An Application to U.S. Presidential Elections

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 30 Jun 2008 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 85 (346,602)
Citation 1

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85.

The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: A Reply

Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 7, pp. 183-185, 1986
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 04 Apr 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 85 (346,602)
Citation 1

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Formal planning, strategic decision, Foster, Terpstra

86.

The Case of the Detrimental Drug: Implications for the Stakeholder Theory of Directorship

Directors and Boards, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 22-39, 1980
Number of pages: 19 Posted: 16 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 19 Oct 2014
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 84 (349,030)

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Wondola case, Upjohn Corporation, drugs, stakeholder theory of directorship

87.

Why We Don't Really Know What ‘Statistical Significance’ Means: A Major Educational Failure

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 11 Aug 2010
J. Scott Armstrong and Raymond Hubbard
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Drake University - College of Business and Public Administration
Downloads 79 (361,881)
Citation 2

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88.

Automatic Identification of Time Series Features for Rule-Based Forecasting

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 17, 143-157, 2001
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
Monica Adya, Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong and Miles Kennedy
Marquette University - College of Business Administration, Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Independent Author
Downloads 78 (364,581)

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Rule-based forecasting, time series, forecasting, heuristic forecasting

89.

The Importance of Objectivity and Falsification in Management Science

Journal of Management, Vol. 9, pp. 213-216, 1983
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 11 Mar 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 77 (367,318)

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Managment, management science, empirical research, subjectivity

Statistical Significance Tests are Unnecessary Even When Properly Done and Properly Interpreted: Reply to Commentaries

Number of pages: 3 Posted: 01 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 76 (373,974)

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Statistical Significance Tests are Unnecessary Even when Properly Done and Properly Interpreted: Reply to Commentaries

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Posted: 25 May 2007
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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91.

Improving Causal Models for Election Forecasting: Further Evidence on the Golden Rule of Forecasting

APSA 2014 Annual Meeting Paper
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 01 Sep 2014
Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business
Downloads 74 (375,701)

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Econometrics, election forecasting, equalizing, equal weights, index method, political economy models, regression

92.

Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations

Management Science, Vol. 38, No. 10, pp. 1394-1414, 1992
Number of pages: 25 Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
Fred Collopy and J. Scott Armstrong
Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 74 (375,701)

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Rule-based forecasting, forecasting, time series, research

93.

Would Mandatory Attendance Be Effective for Economics Classes?

Number of pages: 3 Posted: 29 Dec 2004 Last Revised: 04 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 74 (375,701)
Citation 1

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94.

Do Judgmental Researchers Use their Own Research? A Review of Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, 1984
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 24 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 73 (378,514)

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95.

Principles Involving Marketing Policies: An Empirical Assessment

Marketing Letters, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 253-265, 1992
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Randall Schultz
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of Iowa - Henry B. Tippie College of Business
Downloads 73 (378,514)

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Marketing principles, price, product, promotion, place

96.

Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

Monash University Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Paper No. 27/04
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 30 Mar 2005
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 71 (384,334)
Citation 4

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bad faith, framing, hindsight bias, methods, politics

The Ombudsman: Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge?

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 30 Jun 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 43 (494,430)

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The Ombudsman: Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge?

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
Malcolm Wright and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - School of Marketing and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 27 (581,156)
Citation 5

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citation errors, evidence-based research, nonresponse bias, quotation errors, surveys

98.

Predicting Elections from Biographical Information About Candidates: A Test of the Index Method

Journal of Business Research, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 43 Posted: 09 Aug 2010
J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 69 (390,408)
Citation 1

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econometric model, election forecasts, forecast accuracy, index model, political forecasting political marketing, unit-weighting

99.

Review of Mail and Telephone Surveys

Journal of Business, Vol. 54, No. 4, pp. 622-625
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 16 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 68 (393,407)

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Surveys, market research, Deillman, Mail and Telephone surveys

100.

The 2016 Pollyvote Popular Vote Forecast: A Preliminary Analysis

Forthcoming in PS: Political Science and Politics
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 14 Dec 2016
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Central Oklahoma and University of West Florida
Downloads 67 (396,518)

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PollyVote, 2016 Presidential Election, Forecast

101.

Review of Market Segmentation b Johan Arndt

Journal of Marketing, Vol. 39, No. 1, p. 122, January 1975
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 67 (396,518)

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economics, market segmentation, statistical methods.

102.

Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals

Journal of Business Research, Vol. 56, pp. 69-84, 2002
Number of pages: 36 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 67 (396,518)

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Marketing, communication, proposals, important findings

103.

Management Science: What Does it Have to Do with Management or Science?

Marketing Bulletin, Vol. 9, pp. 1-15, May 1998
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 17 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 66 (399,651)

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Management, management science, scientific findings

104.
Downloads 66 (399,651)

The Profitability of Winning

Number of pages: 3 Posted: 19 Aug 2008
Fred Collopy and J. Scott Armstrong
Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 66 (404,740)

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The Profitability of Winning

Chief Executive, pp. 61-63, June 1994
Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems

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Management, profitability, profits, competitive objective

Replication Research in Marketing Revisited: A Note on a Disturbing Trend

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 01 Jul 2008
University of Muenster - Finance Center Muenster, University of Siegen, Drake University - College of Business and Public Administration and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 65 (408,084)

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Replication Research in Marketing Revisited: A Note on a Disturbing Trend

Journal of Business Research, Vol. 60, pp. 411-415, 2007
Posted: 25 May 2007
University of Muenster - Finance Center Muenster, University of Siegen, Drake University - College of Business and Public Administration and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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106.

The Manager's Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing

FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR MARKETING, G. Fisk, J. Arndt, and G. Gronhaug, eds., pp. 78-89, Cambridge, MA: Marketing Science Institute, 1978
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 14 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 65 (402,864)

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Marketing, marketing manager, role conflict

107.

A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting

Management Science, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 211-221, 1972
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 09 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 29 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong and Michael C. Grohman
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 65 (402,864)

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Market forecast, forecasting, long-range forcasting, econometric model

108.

Predictive Validity of Evidence-Based Persuasion Principles: An Application of the Index Method

Number of pages: 23 Posted: 15 Sep 2015
J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Rui Du and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Hawaii at Manoa and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 64 (406,016)
Citation 1

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advertising, combining forecasts, copy testing, expertise, intentions, judgmental forecasting

109.

Golden Rule of Forecasting Rearticulated: Forecast Unto Others as You Would Have Them Forecast Unto You

Number of pages: 9 Posted: 15 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 64 (406,016)

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cost benefit analysis, index method, legal damage claims, precautionary principle, principal components, take-the-best

110.

On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods

Journal of Forecasting , Vol. 14, pp. 67-71, 1995
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 64 (406,016)

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Accuracy Forecast evaluation Loss functions

111.

Business School Prestige - Research Versus Teaching

Interfaces, Vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 13-43, March-April 1994
Number of pages: 26 Posted: 25 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 64 (406,016)

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Research university, MBA education, prestige schools, teaching

112.

Cheating in Management Science

Interfaces, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp. 20-29, 1983
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 08 Mar 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 62 (412,670)

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Management science, government, cheating

113.

Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 11, pp. 591-597, 1995
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
Thomas Yokum and J. Scott Armstrong
Angelo State University - College of Business and Professional Studies and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 61 (415,950)

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Expert opinion, Forecaster's role, Forecast situation, Implementation

114.

Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research

Interfaces, Vol. 14, pp. 52-66, November-December 1984
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 60 (419,323)
Citation 1

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Forecasting by extrapolation, forecast accuracy, short-range forecasts

115.

How Expert are the Experts?

Inc., pp. 15-16, December 1981
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 59 (422,810)

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Expert forecasting, forecasting value, seer-sucker theory

116.

Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible?

University of Pennsylvania Almanac, Vol. 51, No. 15, December 14, 2004
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 25 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 59 (422,810)

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University education, learning, business school education

117.

Publication of Research on Controversial Topics: The Early Acceptance Procedure

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 11, 1995
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 17 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 08 Jun 2014
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 58 (426,305)

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Research, academic, peer review, scientific method

118.

How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 04 Apr 2012
J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems
Downloads 58 (426,305)

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forecasting, surveys, Clarence Thomas Polls, opinion polling

119.

Are Student Ratings of Instruction Useful?

American Psychologist, Vol. 53, pp. 1223-1224, 1998
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 25 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 58 (426,305)

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instructor rating, education quality, teaching

120.

Review of Peter W. Huber, Liability: The Legal Revolution and its Consequences, New York: Basic Books, Inc., 1988

Journal of Marketing, Vol. 54, pp. 117-118, July 1990
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 05 Apr 2005 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 57 (429,821)

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product liability, Peter, W. Huber, legal, consumer product

121.

Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings

Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, pp. 437-447, 1983
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 57 (429,821)

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Annual, financial forecasts, Judgment vs. extrapolation

122.

Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore Versus Fact

Journal of Business, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 549-564, 1978
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 09 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 56 (433,375)

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Forecasting, econometric, methodology, social psychology

123.

Long-Range Forecasting for a Consumer Durable in an International Market

Number of pages: 276 Posted: 08 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 55 (437,024)
Citation 1

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international marketing, long-range prediction, forecasting

124.

Publication Bias Against Null Results

Psychological Reports, Vol. 80, pp. 337-338, 1997
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Raymond Hubbard
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Drake University - College of Business and Public Administration
Downloads 55 (437,024)
Citation 1

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Marketing, null hypothese, publication bias, market research

125.

Role Conflict: Society's Dilemma with Excellence in Marketing

Number of pages: 7 Posted: 30 Jul 2008 Last Revised: 28 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 54 (440,625)

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126.

Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author's Formula

Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Vol. 5, pp. 197-199, June 1982
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 11 Mar 2005 Last Revised: 08 Jun 2014
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 54 (440,625)

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Management science, author's formula, scientific contribution, manuscript acceptance

127.

Management Folklore and Management Science - on Portfolio Planning, Escalation Bias, and Such

Interfaces, pp. 28-42, July-August 1996
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 17 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 53 (444,327)

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Management, management science, portfolio planning, escalation bias, decision making

128.

Derivation of Theory by Means of Factor Analysis or Tom Swift and His Electric Factor Analysis Machine

The American Statistician, pp. 17-21, December 2004
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 25 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 51 (451,754)

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factor analysis, factor analysis results

129.

The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards

Wharton School Alamanc, 1990
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 11 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 04 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 51 (451,754)

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Teaching, faculty rating, tenure promotion, wharton teaching committee

130.

Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit

Interfaces, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 28 Jul 2008
Kesten C. Green, Willie Soon and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, Harvard University - Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 49 (459,560)

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131.

Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 23, pp. 321-327, 2007
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 30 Jun 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 49 (459,560)

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accuracy measures, combining forecasts, confidence intervals, effect size, M-competition, meta-analysis, null hypothesis, practical significance, replications

132.

Evaluation of Extrapolative Forecasting Methods: Results of a Survey of Academicians and Practitioners

Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1, pp. 215-1217, 1982
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 04 Apr 2012
J. Scott Armstrong and Robert Carbone
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 49 (459,560)

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Forecasting, extrapolcation model, forecasting academic and organizational practitioners

133.

The Use of the Decomposition Principle in Making Judgments

Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, Vol. 14, pp. 257-263, 1975
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 30 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 48 (463,569)

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134.

Potential Diffusion of Expert Systems in Forecasting

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 67, pp. 93-103, 2001
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 07 Jul 2012
J. Scott Armstrong and Thomas Yokum
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Angelo State University - College of Business and Professional Studies
Downloads 48 (463,569)

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Forecasting, diffusions, expert forecasting, forecaster, forecast system

135.

Introduction to Paper and Commentaries on the Delphi Technique

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, pp. 351-352, 1999
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 21 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 47 (467,693)

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136.

Long-Range Forecasting for International Markets: The Use of Causal Models

Robert L. King, MARKETING AND THE NEW SCIENCE OF PLANNING, American Marketing Association, 1968
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 28 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 46 (471,891)

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international, forecasting, marketing, model

137.

Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing?

Marketing Letters, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 127-136, 1992
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Raymond Hubbard
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Drake University - College of Business and Public Administration
Downloads 46 (471,891)

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File drawer problem, null results, publication bias, statistical power analysis

138.

Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals

Journal of Information Science, Vol. 15, pp.123-124, 1989
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 17 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 45 (476,122)

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Readability, scientific journals, meta-analysis, scientific methods

139.

Assessing Game Theory, Role Playing, and Unaided Judgment

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 18 pp. 345-352, 2002
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 45 (476,122)

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Forecasting, role-playing, simulated interactions

140.

Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 20, pp. 523-527, 2004
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 04 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 04 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 45 (476,122)

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Forecasting, seasonal factors, forecast accuracy

141.

Advocacy and Objectivity in Science

Management Science, Vol. 25, pp. 423-428, 1979
Number of pages: 7 Posted: 08 Mar 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 41 (493,575)

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Objectivity, scientific research, management, advocacy

142.

Research on Scientific Journals: Implications for Editors and Authors

Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 1, pp. 83-104, 1982
Number of pages: 23 Posted: 08 Mar 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 39 (502,689)

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Management science, scientific journals, editors, authors

143.

Unintelligible Management Research and Academic Prestige

Interfaces, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 80-86, April 1980
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 08 Mar 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 39 (502,689)

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Management, journals, research and academic prestige

144.

Class of Mail Does Affect Response Rates to Mailed Questionnaires: Evidence from Meta-Analysis (with a Reply by Lee Harvey)

Journal of the Market Research Society, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 469-472, 1990
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 39 (502,689)

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Market research, class of mail, response rate, marketing

145.

Forecasting of Software Development Work Effort: Introduction

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 23, p. 447, 2007
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 30 Jun 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 38 (507,251)

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146.

Advocacy as a Scientific Strategy: The Mitroff Myth

Academy of Management Review, Vol. 5, pp. 509-511, 1980
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 08 Mar 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 38 (507,251)
Citation 1

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Management science, scientific strategy, Ian Mitroff, research

147.

Does the Need for Agreement Among Reviewers Inhibit the Publication of Controversial Findings?

Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Vol. 14, pp. 136-137, 1991
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 17 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Raymond Hubbard
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Drake University - College of Business and Public Administration
Downloads 38 (507,251)
Citation 1

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Publication review, controversial emperical research, publication

148.

Effectiveness of Monetary Incentives: Mail Surveys to Members of Multinational Professional Groups

Industrial Marketing Management, Vol. 23, pp. 133-136, 1994
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Thomas Yokum
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Angelo State University - College of Business and Professional Studies
Downloads 38 (507,251)

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Marketing, monetary incentives, mail surveys

149.

Persuasion Principles Index: Ready for Pretesting Advertisements

Number of pages: 15 Posted: 15 Sep 2015
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, Rui Du and Andreas Graefe
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Hawaii at Manoa and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 37 (511,936)

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advertising effectiveness, combining forecasts, creativity, index method, profitability, variable weighting

150.

Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data

PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING: A HANDBOOK FOR RESEARCHERS AND PRACTITIONERS, J. Scott Armstrong, ed., Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001
Number of pages: 22 Posted: 05 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 37 (511,936)

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acceleration, adaptive parameters, analogous data, asymmetric errors, base rate, Box-Jenkins, combining, conservatism, contrary series, cycles, damping, decomposition, discontinuities, domain knowledge, experimentation, exponential smoothing, functional form, judgmental adjustments, M-competition

151.

Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making

International Journal of Forecasting, 2009
Number of pages: 9 Posted: 09 Aug 2010
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong and Willie Soon
University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Harvard University - Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
Downloads 37 (511,936)
Citation 3

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climate model, ex ante forecasts, out-of-sample errors, predictability, public policy, relative absolute errors, unconditional forecasts

152.

Expert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, pp. 575-582, 1992
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2008
Fred Collopy and J. Scott Armstrong
Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 37 (511,936)

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Discontinuities, Forecasting guidelines, Selection criteria, Time series features

153.

Judgmental Decomposition: When Does it Work?

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 10, pp. 495-906, 1994
Number of pages: 12 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 08 Mar 2012
Donald G. MacGregor and J. Scott Armstrong
MacGregor-Bates, Inc. and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 37 (511,936)

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Decision analysis, estimation, extreme values, forecasting, multiplicative

154.

Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-Series Extrapolation

Journal of Forecasting , Vol. 12, pp. 103-115, 1993
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems
Downloads 37 (511,936)

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Causal forces, Combining, Contrary trends, Damped trends, Exponential

155.

Escalation Bias: Does it Extend to Marketing?

Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 247-253, 1993
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong, Nicole Coviello and Barbara Safranek
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of Auckland - Business School and S.G. Warburg & Co., Inc.
Downloads 36 (516,715)

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Escalation bias, marketing, management, decisiong making

156.

Tom Swift and His Electric Regression Analysis Machine: 1973

Psychological Reports, Vol. 36, p. 806, 1975
Number of pages: 1 Posted: 09 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 29 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 36 (516,715)

Abstract:

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Electronic regression analysis machine, forecasting

157.

An Application of Rule-Based Forecasting to a Situation Lacking Domain Knowledge

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 16, pp. 477-484, 2000
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
Monica Adya, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy and Miles Kennedy
Marquette University - College of Business Administration, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems and Independent Author
Downloads 36 (516,715)

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Forecast, rule-based forecasting, RBF

158.

Is Review by Peers as Fair as it Appears?

Interfaces, Vol. 12, pp. 62-74, October 1982
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 08 Mar 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 35 (521,634)

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Peer reviews, management science, journal reviews

159.

Book Review of the Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making

Journal of Marketing, Vol. 58, July 1994
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 34 (526,767)

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advertising, marketing, principles, review

160.

Predicting Elections from the Most Important Issue: A Test of the Take-the-Best Heuristic

Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Forthcoming
Number of pages: 16 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 34 (526,767)

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econometric model, forecasting, elections

161.

Return Postage in Mail Surveys: A Meta Analysis

Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 51, pp. 233-248, 1987
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 14 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 08 Jul 2012
J. Scott Armstrong and Edward J. Lusk
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of Pennsylvania - Statistics Department
Downloads 34 (526,767)

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Mail surveys, marketing research, coding, analysis

162.

Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984

Interfaces, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 89-109, January-February 1986
Number of pages: 13 Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 34 (526,767)

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Forecasting methods, forecast, 1960, research, forecasting principles

163.

Predicting the Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing Versus Unaided Opinions

International Journal of Research in Marketing, Vol. 6, pp. 227-239, 1989
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Philip D. Hutcherson
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and affiliation not provided to SSRN
Downloads 33 (531,982)

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Marketing, role-playing, forecasting, marketing negotiation, unaided opinions

164.

Do Econometric Models Provide More Accurate Forecasts When They are More Conservative? A Test of Political Economy Models for Forecasting Elections

Number of pages: 25 Posted: 02 Nov 2017
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 32 (537,170)

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combining forecasts, damping, equalizing, elections, golden rule of forecasting, index method, shrinkage

165.

Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys

Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 39, pp. 111-116, 1975
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 15 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 32 (537,170)
Citation 4

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Incentive, survey, mail surveys, effective

166.

Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 17, pp. 542-545, 2001
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 32 (537,170)

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M3-competition, forecasting, forecasting error

167.

Principles for Examining Predictive Validity: The Case of Information Systems Spending Forecasts

Information Systems Research, Vol. 5, pp. 170-179, June 1994
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 21 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy and Monica Adya
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems and Marquette University - College of Business Administration
Downloads 31 (542,414)

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168.

The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?

International Journal of Applied Forecasting, No. 2, pp. 50-52, October 2005
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 27 Jan 2006 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 30 (547,811)

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Decisions in conflict, hindsight bias, structured analogies, simulated interaction

169.

Toward Computer-Aided Forecasting Systems: Gathering, Coding, and Validating the Knowledge

DSS-89 TRANSACTIONS: NINTH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, George R. Widmeyer, ed., Institute of Management Sciences, pp. 103-119, 1989
Number of pages: 17 Posted: 21 Jul 2008
Fred Collopy and J. Scott Armstrong
Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 29 (553,391)

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170.

Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply

Interfaces, Vol. 33, No. 8, pp. 109-111
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 17 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 29 (553,391)

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Communication, management science, management, academics

171.

Learner Responsibility in Management Education, or Ventures into Forbidden Research (with Comments)

Interfaces, Vol. 13, pp. 26-38, 1983
Number of pages: 11 Posted: 25 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 29 (553,391)

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Learning, management education, MBA education

172.

Book Review of No Contest: The Case Against Competition

Journal of Marketing, October 1988
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 27 (565,053)

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book review, corporate competition, marketing.

173.

Learning Versus Teaching: Reply to Commentaries

Number of pages: 5 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 27 (565,053)

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education, research, rankings

174.

Bafflegab Pays

Number of pages: 1 Posted: 30 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 27 (565,053)

Abstract:

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175.

Derivation of Theory by Means of Factor Analysis of Tom Swift and His Electric Factor Analysis Machine

Number of pages: 6 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 25 (577,648)

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à priori analysis, factor analysis, model

176.

Commentary on 'Generalizing About Univariate Forecasting Methods: Further Empirical Evidence'

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 14, 1998
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 23 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 25 (577,648)

Abstract:

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177.

How Practitioners Can Use Evidence-Based Findings: Reply to Commentaries

Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Vol. 5, pp. 14-15, 2006
Number of pages: 4 Posted: 25 May 2007 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 24 (584,056)

Abstract:

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178.

Replications of Forecasting Research

Number of pages: 12 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
Heiner Evanschitzky and J. Scott Armstrong
University of Muenster - Finance Center Muenster and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 23 (590,524)

Abstract:

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forecasting, management science, marketing

179.

Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote

FORESIGHT, No. 12, Winter 2009
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 09 Aug 2010
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of West Florida and University of Central Oklahoma
Downloads 23 (590,524)

Abstract:

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180.

Reflections on Forecasting in the 1980's

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, No. 4, pp. 467-468, 1989
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 24 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 23 (590,524)

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181.

Publishing Standards for Research in Forecasting (Editorial)

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, 1986
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 24 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 20 (610,426)

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182.

Generalization and Communication Issues in the Use of Error Measures: A Reply

Number of pages: 3 Posted: 21 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 20 (610,426)

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183.

Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals Through Causal Forces

Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 20, No. 4, pp. 273-283, July 2001
Number of pages: 10 Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems
Downloads 20 (610,426)

Abstract:

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Forecasting, asymmetric prediction, causal forces, series forecast

184.

Conditions Under Which Index Models are Useful: Reply to Bio-Index Commentaries

Number of pages: 11 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Macromedia University of Applied Sciences
Downloads 18 (623,917)
Citation 1

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bio-index, forecasting, index methods, index models

185.

Econometric Forecasting and the Science Court

Journal of Business, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp. 595-600, 1978
Number of pages: 5 Posted: 09 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 29 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 18 (623,917)

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Econometric, forecasting, science court, folklore vs. fact

186.

Editorial Policies for the Publication of Controversial Findings

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 8, pp. 543-544, 1992
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 17 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 17 (630,782)

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Controversial findings, editorial policies, publish, academic

187.

Predicting Elections from Politicians’ Faces

Number of pages: 17 Posted: 04 May 2010 Last Revised: 15 Aug 2015
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, University of South Australia - UniSA Business, University of Central Oklahoma and University of South Australia - School of Marketing
Downloads 16 (637,725)
Citation 1

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accuracy, appearance, forecasting methods, snap judgments

188.

Reply to Miser's Commentary on 'Democracy Does Not Make Good Science: On Reforming Review Procedures for Management Science Journals'

Number of pages: 4 Posted: 21 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 16 (637,725)

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189.

Does an Academic Research Paper Contain Useful Knowledge? No (P<.05)

Number of pages: 2 Posted: 14 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 16 (637,725)

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Review of: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things

International Journal of Forecasting, 2003
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 16 Aug 2010
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 15 (668,777)

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Review of: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things

Posted: 07 Feb 2005
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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Ray Fair, forecasting, econometric models

191.

Commentary on 'Publishing Opinions: A Note on the Usefulness of Commentaries'

Number of pages: 1 Posted: 10 Oct 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 13 (659,379)

Abstract:

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citations, commentaries, journal space, research

192.

Role Thinking: Standing in Other People’s Shoes to Forecast Decisions in Conflicts

Number of pages: 21 Posted: 28 Apr 2010 Last Revised: 15 Aug 2015
Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 13 (659,379)
Citation 2

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combining forecasts, evaluating forecasts, expert judgment, group decision making, organizational behavior, perspective-taking, role playing, simulated interaction, unaided judgment

193.

Forecasting of Software Development Work Effort: Introduction

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 23, p. 447, 2007
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 09 Aug 2010
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 11 (674,052)

Abstract:

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194.

Accuracy Gains from Conservative Forecasting: Tests Using Variations of 19 Econometric Models to Predict 154 Elections in 10 Countries

PLoS ONE 14 (1): e0209850. 2019
Number of pages: 14 Posted: 25 Jan 2019
Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of South Australia - UniSA Business and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 5 (718,822)

Abstract:

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195.

Combining Forecasts for U.S. Presidential Elections: The Pollyvote

Posted: 09 Aug 2010
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences, University of West Florida, University of Central Oklahoma and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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196.

Comparing Face-to-Face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Posted: 03 Mar 2010
Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong
Macromedia University of Applied Sciences and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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forecast accuracy, group decision-making, method comparison, satisfaction, combining

197.

Competitor-Oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share

International Journal of Business, Vol. 12, No. 1, 2007
Posted: 10 Jun 2008 Last Revised: 30 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and University of South Australia - UniSA Business

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Competition, Market share, Objective, Profitability

198.

The Value of Formal Planning for Strategic Decisions: Review of Empirical Research

Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 3, pp. 197-211, 1982
Posted: 31 Mar 2005
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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Formal planning, strategic decision, management, coporate planning

199.

Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, with Reply to Commentators

Interfaces, Vol. 33, No. 5, pp. 1-21, 2003
Posted: 17 Feb 2005
J. Scott Armstrong and Ruth Pagell
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and affiliation not provided to SSRN

Abstract:

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Journals, meta-analysis, peer review, principles, software, websites

200.

Replications and Extensions in Marketing - Rarely Published But Quite Contrary

International Journal of Research in Marketing, Vol. 11, pp. 233-248, 1994
Posted: 17 Feb 2005
Raymond Hubbard and J. Scott Armstrong
Drake University - College of Business and Public Administration and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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Marketing, replication and extension

201.

Long-Range Forecasting, 2nd. Ed

LONG-RANGE FORECASTING, 2nd. ed., 1985
Posted: 14 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 31 Dec 2011
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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Forecasting, Long-Range Forecasting

202.

Exploratory Analysis of Marketing Data: Trees vs. Regression

Journal of Marketing Research Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. 7, pp. 487-492, 1970
Posted: 09 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 13 Aug 2010
J. Scott Armstrong and James G. Andress
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department and Booz-Allen-Hamilton, Inc.

Abstract:

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Marketing data, trees analysis vs. regression analysis, forecasting

203.

Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 4, pp. 321-324, 1988
Posted: 08 Feb 2005
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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Forecasting, International institute of Forecasting, research, IIF

204.

Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 01 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy and Thomas Yokum
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department, Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems and Angelo State University - College of Business and Professional Studies

Abstract:

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Airline accidents, extrapolation, Holt's exponential smoothing, model formulation, personal computers

205.

Commentary by J. Scott Armstrong on Fildes Et Al.: Generalizing About Univariate Forecasting Methods: Further Empirical Evidence

Posted: 07 Feb 2005
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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Forecasting methods, international journal of forecasting, forecasting research, univariate forecasting methods

206.

The Fertile Field of Meta-Analysis: Cumulative Progress in Agricultural Forecasting

International Journal of Forecasting , Vol. 10, pp. 147-140, 1994
Posted: 07 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 04 Apr 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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forecasting, agriculture, agricultural forecasting, meta-analysis

207.

The Natural Learning Project

Journal of Experiential Learning and Simulation, Vol. 1, pp. 5-12, 1979
Posted: 13 Jan 2005 Last Revised: 04 Jan 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

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Natural learning, learner responsibility, effective learning, structural learning

Standards and Practices for Forecasting

Posted: 25 Dec 2004
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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Forecasting, forecasting principles, forecasting methodology

Standards and Practices for Forecasting

Posted: 11 Aug 2010
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Abstract:

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forecasting practice, forecasting principles, forecasting process

Other Papers (13)

Total Downloads: 620
1.

Why Can't a Game Be More Like a Business? A Review of Co-Opetition by Brandenburger and Nalebuff

Journal of Marketing, Vol. 61, pp. 92-95, April 1997
Number of pages: 6 Posted: 05 Apr 2005 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 182

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business, game theory, management, planning

2.

Review of: Philip E. Tetlock. 2005. Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How Can We Know?

Number of pages: 4 Posted: 01 Jul 2008
Adrian E. Tschoegl and J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Management Department and University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 77

Abstract:

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3.

Review of Stanley Milgram, Obedience to Authority, New York: Harper & Row, Publishers, 1974

Journal of Marketing, Vol. 39, p. 125, July 1975
Posted: 05 Apr 2005 Last Revised: 30 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 65

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marketing, social irresponsibility, management, Stanley Milgram

4.

Review of Ravi Batra, the Great Depression of 1990 (Simon and Schuster, New York, 1985)

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 4, pp. 493-502, 1988
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 26 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 65

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Great depression, forecasting, Ravi Batra, business cycles

5.

Book Reviewed: Where the Suckers Moon: An Advertising Story, by Randall Rothenberg, New York: Alfred a. Knopf, 1994, 477 Pages. How Should Firms Select Advertising Agencies?

Journal of Marketing, Vol. 60, pp. 131-134, July 1996
Number of pages: 8 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 58

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Marketing, Rothenberg, advertising

6.

Book Review of No Contest: The Case Against Competition by Alfie Kohn Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1986

Journal of Marketing, October 1988
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 04 Apr 2005 Last Revised: 26 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 41

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Alfie Kohn, competition, marketing

7.

Review of Steven J. Rosenstone, Forecasting Presidential Elections (Published by Yale University Press, New Haven, Ct, 1983)

International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 248-249, 1986
Number of pages: 1 Posted: 08 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 26 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 40

Abstract:

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Political forecasting, forecasting, voting, econometric model

8.

Book Review of 'the Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making'

Journal of Marketing, Vol. 58, July 1994
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 22 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 33

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Marketing, principles, psychology, decision making, marketing textbook

9.

Market Share Superstition (Letter)

Sloan Management Review, Vol. 38, pp. 4-5, Fall 1996
Number of pages: 1 Posted: 22 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 13

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market share, management, planning

10.

Review of: Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things

Number of pages: 2 Posted: 14 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 12

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11.

Review of: Batchelor, Roy (2001), "How Useful are the Forecasts of Intergovernmental Agencies? The Imf And OECD Versus the Consensus"

Number of pages: 1 Posted: 14 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 12

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12.

Book Review: Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change, by Allen Tough, Chicago: Follette Publishing Co., 1982

Academy of Management Review, Vol. 8, pp. 509-511, 1983
Number of pages: 3 Posted: 11 Feb 2005 Last Revised: 24 Aug 2012
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 12

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Implement changes, intentional changes, Allen Tough

13.

Review of Paul Blumberg, the Predatory Society: Deception in the American Marketplace New York

Journal of Marketing, pp. 127-128, October 1990
Number of pages: 2 Posted: 08 Dec 2005 Last Revised: 23 Jul 2008
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Downloads 10

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Paul Blumberg, free market, marketing, social responsibility, management